How defenders of Israel genocide sparked a debate about the fall of the West

Our contemporary discourse is gripped with tales about the “fall of the West”. It takes many forms. On one side of the spectrum is the racist and conspiratorial “Great Replacement Theory”, known also as the “White Genocide Theory”. Proponents of this theory, who are almost entirely from the right, believe that there is a deliberate plot to replace white populations in Western countries with non-white immigrants, particularly from Muslim-majority regions.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, tales of the decline of the West are grounded less in conspiracy and more on economic facts about the rise of China and the threat it poses to America’s position as the pre-eminent superpower. A recent study conducted by Rand, titled “The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism”, commissioned by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, falls in this category.

The study suggests that the US may be facing a decline from which few great powers have recovered. It highlights various internal and external threats to America’s competitive position, particularly emphasising challenges such as slowing productivity growth, an aging population, a polarised political system and rising competition from China.

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According to the report, the decline is accelerating, exacerbated by starkly different perceptions of the problem and how to address it among different segments of society and political leaders. Without a unified effort to identify and tackle these challenges, argue the authors, the US risks further decline, with historical examples such as Rome and the Soviet Union serving as cautionary tales.

Identifying triggers of national decline, the report lists addiction to luxury, technological stagnation, bureaucratic ossification and self-interested elites. The report warns that, if left unchecked, these trends will threaten both domestic and international sources of competitive standing, thus accelerating the relative decline of the US. The authors emphasise that it is rare for great powers to recover from significant long-term decline and that renewal efforts often fail to reverse the trajectory of ebbing influence.

Between the two spectrums – the racist conspiratorial “Great Replacement Theory” and the fact-based analysis of US and, by extension, Western decline – exist many other currents. Though differing on the source of Western decline, all predict a civilisational transformation, with the West losing its pre-eminent status in the world.

It goes without saying that the rise and fall of empires and political powers is one of the iron laws of history and politics. The cyclical nature of power dynamics, where empires and political powers ascend to dominance and eventually decline, is a principle so fundamental that it requires no explanation. However, predicting when such a transformation will take place is much more difficult.

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The more interesting aspect of this discussion, at least to me, anyway, is the one about the reasons cited by different sections of society to explain the fall of the West. Why, in the public discourse, a certain view about the fall of the West gains popularity over others is far more revealing a question than any prediction about its timing. The certainty that the West will, one day, be replaced by another civilisation as the dominant power is matched by the uncertainty over who or what is to be blamed for it. This uncertainty has become a source of polarisation which, in itself, is one of the key indicators of a civilisation in decline.

It can be argued that the ”Great Replacement Theory”, for example, is a reflection of the polarisation of society cited by the Rand report. It is an example of the internal weakness accelerating Western decline. It reflects the loss of trust between government and people, the displacement of truth with misinformation and the rise of hate and racism. All are key features of the current cultural moment and are part and parcel of any account of the rise and fall of civilisations.

The current culture war is fuelled by a potent force: the ability to assign blame for the perceived decline of the Western world. The right, given its proximity to power and its positions of influence, has adeptly harnessed this fear of Western decay. This is particularly evident in how commentators, especially those leaning towards the ideology of the “Great Replacement”, have strategically attributed the deterioration of the West to the emergence of progressive politics. They argue that the unified opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza, a hallmark of progressive politics, is a significant factor in this decline, according to their narrative of Western civilisation’s downfall.

Students protesting Israel’s genocide in Gaza has brought this to the forefront. It is evident that the majority of the political, media and military-industrial complex view progressive movements as the primary catalyst for the West’s decline. They perceive the demand for justice and equality for all as a direct challenge to so-called Western values, which they believe weaken the fabric of Western societies. In response, they have utilised the power of the State, which the entrenched nexus of politics, media and industry can access easily, to undermine the very values and principles that the West purports to uphold, such as free speech and the right to protest.

It is important to remember that progressive movements, rather than posing a threat to Western civilisation, are integral to its values and principles. Student protestors are not advocating for the demise of the West; instead, they are urging the West to uphold and safeguard the values it professes to hold dear. These values, which have shaped the West, are the result of the sacrifices made by the predecessors of the modern progressive movement, which has taken up the issue of Palestine as one of its main causes.

The predecessors of the students protesting Israel’s genocide in Gaza fought against systemic inequalities, advocated for social justice and strove to create a more inclusive society. From the battle for women’s suffrage to the civil rights movement, progressive movements have played a crucial role in broadening rights and opportunities for all marginalised communities. Painting these efforts with a broad brush and dismissing them as destructive forces is not only inaccurate but also undermines the very principles of open discourse and pluralism that are central to Western civilisation.

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Societal change and evolution are natural processes, and the ability to adapt and embrace progress is a hallmark of healthy and vibrant civilisations. Addressing the challenges facing Western societies today, such as economic inequality, climate change and social polarisation, requires a more nuanced approach than the simplistic narratives of the right.

By virtue of their proximity to power, the right have weaponised widely shared fears of the collapse of Western civilisation to target their opponents while overlooking the significant role that formal institutions of power have played in hastening the decline of the West. These institutions have contributed to the downfall through their backing of Israel’s genocide in Gaza and their subversion of the international rules-based system.

Instead of scapegoating progressive movements, it ought to be recognised that the true danger to Western civilisation lies with those who actively undermine the very freedoms and values that define it. The erosion of principles such as free speech, equality before the law and respect for individual rights – often in the name of misguided notions of security or stability – is the greatest threat to Western civilisation, not protestors demonstrating in the spirit of freedom and equal rights.

The West risks losing its moral authority and sense of purpose by uncritically aligning itself with the actions of any single state, even a close ally like Israel, at the expense of its own foundational values. It must look inward and honestly assess to what extent the core tenets that make the West worthy of admiration are being upheld and embodied in the policies and conduct on the world stage. Only by reaffirming its commitment to the principles of democracy, human rights and the rule of law can the West ensure there is a Western civilisation worth protecting.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.