Lancet study: Gaza death toll 50% higher than previously reported

The death toll in Gaza is 50 per cent higher than originally reported, according to a major new peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet Global Health, which estimates that more than 75,000 Palestinians were killed in the first 15 months of Israel’s genocide.

The study estimates 75,200 violent deaths between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, compared with 49,090 recorded by Gaza’s Ministry of Health for the same period. That difference of around 26,000 deaths puts the Lancet figure at approximately 50 per cent above the official toll, with researchers concluding that the Ministry’s count fell 34.7 per cent short of their estimate.

The findings come from the Gaza Mortality Survey, described by the authors as the first independent, population-representative household mortality survey conducted during the current war.

Researchers interviewed 2,000 households across 200 sampling units, documenting the vital status of 9,729 household members who were alive on 6 October 2023, as well as newborns. The study reports a 97.2 per cent response rate and used statistical weighting to match Gaza’s pre-war population distribution by age, gender, household size and governorate of origin.

The authors estimate that the 75,200 violent deaths amount to around 3.4 per cent of Gaza’s pre-genocide population. They also report that women, children and older people made up 56.2 per cent of those killed by Israel, totalling an estimated 42,200 deaths, including 22,800 children under 18.

While the overall toll is substantially higher than the Ministry’s count, the study finds that the demographic pattern of those killed broadly matches the Ministry’s reporting, suggesting that the discrepancy lies in undercounting rather than fabrication.

In addition to violent deaths, the researchers estimate 16,300 non-violent deaths during the same period. After subtracting projected baseline mortality, this amounts to approximately 8,540 excess non-violent deaths attributable indirectly to Israel’s campaign, including deaths linked to the collapse of healthcare, displacement and deteriorating living conditions.

The study also estimates that around 12,200 people are missing, the majority of them men aged 18–64 years. The authors caution that the true proportion of missing individuals who may be deceased remains unknown, meaning the overall death toll could be even higher.

Importantly, the researchers state that their findings contradict claims that casualty figures from Gaza have been inflated. Instead, they conclude that MoH reporting appears to have been conservative, and that violent deaths “substantially exceeded official figures”.

Israel spent nearly two years dismissing the Gaza Health Ministry’s casualty figures before acknowledging last month that they were reliable. The reversal came amid increasing scrutiny suggesting that the true death toll was higher than previously recorded — a claim now supported by the Lancet’s independent findings.

The new study builds on earlier warnings published in The Lancet in July 2024, which suggested that when indirect deaths from disease, hunger and the destruction of essential infrastructure are included, the total number of Palestinians killed could ultimately reach more than 186,000.

Subsequent research has reinforced concerns about the scale of killing in Gaza. A separate study the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research found that more than 112,000 Palestinians had been killed. The study drew historical comparisons between Gaza and past genocides, highlighting patterns of mass civilian targeting and destruction of basic life-sustaining infrastructure.