An article in the Financial Times has examined the effects of reports about European security contacts with Syrian officials regarding attempts to resolve the Syrian crisis. Writer Roula Khalaf believes that such reports, if true, express the long-term concerns of Western countries regarding the repercussions of the Syrian crisis, especially fears about the implications that jihadist volunteers fresh from the war might have on Western security.
Unlike Iraq, where foreign fighters were recruited for suicide operations, volunteers from Europe with combat experience are returning to their countries; this opens the door for the emergence of a generation of “European Syrians”, along the lines of the generation of “Arab Afghans” in the 1980s. According to Khalaf, with the Syrian conflict attracting a lot of foreign jihadists, the people of Syria are afraid to ask if the foreign governments are trying to rebuild their relations with Bashar Al-Assad rather than work towards his overthrow.
The writer cites the statement made by the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister, Faisal Mekdad, to the BBC, in which he says that Western intelligence agencies have visited Damascus for talks on combating radical Islamist groups; the Europeans view cooperation with Al-Assad as a way to protect their national security. Khalaf believes that there may be talks with Syria regarding its chemical weapons issue, but security agencies sometimes take actions that their governments do not admit to, such as communication with disagreeable people who may be a good source of information.
According to one security official, Western governments consider “profits and losses” when trying to measure the effects of the presence of foreign jihadists in Syria, adding, “Sometimes you need to deal with the devil in such considerations.”
Khalaf also says that there are two questions that should be taken into account in the Syrian case. The first is whether Al-Assad and his regime can be trusted to provide honest security information about the jihadists. The opposition suspects the regime’s involvement in the jihadist issue and believe that it has its own elements within certain groups, especially the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (known by its Arabic acronym, Daash).
Secondly, what is the political message that the talks in Geneva are aiming to send to the regime? It has been asked several times already to hand over power.
Despite the stalemate on the battlefield, Western diplomats say that Al-Assad has maintained his hold on power due to the defragmentation in the ranks of the opposition and in-fighting by jihadists, as well as the continued shelling of areas controlled by the opposition. According to statements by the Syrian government’s spokespeople, it has enhanced its position after the Russian-brokered agreement to get rid of its chemical weapons.
According to Khalaf, the Western nations have been forced to deal with Syria through the prism of the fight against terrorism. This security perspective is the main reason for the opposition from Western countries to military intervention in Syria over the past year, as they realised its negative repercussions, even if the West fights the same enemy faced by Al-Qaeda and its associated branches.
She also suggests that the West’s anxiety is associated with the long-term effects of the Syrian crisis, and the fear of a repeat of the Afghanistan experience and its results in the 1990s, when Al-Qaeda was formed by jihadists funded by Saudi Arabia and armed by the United States a decade earlier to confront the Soviet invasion.
Furthermore, Khalaf says that the issue of the jihadists is a priority for European policy, especially in the light of the increase of volunteers from Europe in their ranks. The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at King’s College, University of London, says that the number of foreign jihadists has increased in the second half of 2013; out of a total of 8,500 fighters, there were, it is claimed, 2,000 foreign fighters from European countries, especially France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Khalaf’s Financial Times article added that the European volunteers usually travel to Syria for a month or two and then return home to rest before going back to the battlefield. She quoted a security expert saying that the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on the international community are not yet clear, with analysts wondering whether the former combatants in Syria would turn into a new generation of international jihadists, replacing the Afghanistan generation.
She suggested that the behaviour of foreign jihadists will also be affected by developments in the conflict, as Daash has marginalised the local communities and the rest of the fighting groups. Two weeks ago, some jihadist groups and local fighters allied to launch an attack on northern Syria to restore the areas that the foreign fighters dominated. In the event that they are successful, they may serve as a barrier to deter further recruitment of foreign jihadists.
While the opposition fighters continue to face-off against each other, the Western governments are trying to combine the fight against terrorism with the establishment of a comprehensive political strategy. Moreover, Al-Assad will try to fish in troubled waters, as the regime’s behaviour is based on looking at any hint of pressure being eased as a licence to kill; that’s the same strategy it will use in negotiations.
Source: Arabi21