The Brotherhood takes the lead... why the surprise?

That the Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, should lead after the first phase of the parliamentary election is not a surprise. More surprising is the success of the Salafi party, in second place ahead of the Egyptian Bloc, and in some provinces ahead of Egyptian liberal groups.

According to Freedom and Justice leader Muhammad Mursi his party will probably gain more than 40% of the votes in the elections in Cairo and Alexandria to contest 186 seats in the parliament; the forecast was made when the count was almost completed. If these results are accurate we must prepare ourselves for an Egyptian parliament dominated by the Islamic movement and the formation of a coalition government led by the Brotherhood, with some leftist and nationalist parties allied to it, similar to what has happened in Tunisia. This may also take place in Morocco where the Justice and Development Party won more than two hundred seats in the recent election.

The moral we can deduce from these elections arising out of the Arab Spring is that the chances of the Islamists winning the most parliamentary seats is a stark reality. The only condition is that the elections are fair and transparent such as those conducted in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and, perhaps, in Yemen soon.

Of course, this victory constitutes a burden and a test at the same time for the Islamists; they have to live up to the expectation of the voters and fulfil their aspirations in establishing a government based on justice, an independent judiciary, a leaning toward the poor in society and employment for the youth. The main weakness lies in the fact that the Islamists have no experience in government; this is not their fault, because over the past few decades they have been subjected to every form of exclusion and persecution. The main concern of most of their leaders was to keep out of jail, not form a government. A coalition with the liberals would therefore be the best option for the Islamists because it would reassure a section of society which fears the denial of certain personal and social freedoms under austere Islamic rule. It will also confirm to everyone that the Islamists desire, indeed aspire, to coexist with other political parties despite the ideological differences; they would also repudiate the claims made by some of their enemies that they would abuse power if elected.

The Middle East-North Africa region is changing at an astounding rate and the ballot box will define the political map with unprecedented certainty. Prevailing doctrines and limitations from the past sixty years have fallen away one by one.

Election to high office is the most difficult test for the Islamists themselves after decades of being in opposition; that was arguably the easy option. It was not their choice, of course; it was imposed on them by the ruling repressive dictatorships.

The statements of the leaders of the Islamic parties in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt suggest that they are determined to focus on the core issues such as the economy, public services and unemployment and to steer clear, even if temporarily, from the issues that some of them view as secondary. Hence there will be no immediate implementation of Islamic laws, imposition of hijab or prohibition of all forms of liberalism. If they are able to keep this up, the doubters may develop a positive image of the Islamist parties. We could then see the parties emulating Turkey’s Justice and Development party by winning second and third terms in office.

What can be said with certainty is that political Islam is on the rise and liberalism is in retreat. This may be a temporary blip while the Arab people give moderate Islam an opportunity to rule and implement its programmes. We should respect the democratic choice of the people and not hasten to pre-judge the Islamists; let’s watch the results and judge the parties on what they do in power, not what they said they would do in order to garner votes.

Source: Al Quds Al-Arabi – 01/12/11