The conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Iran, plus their allies in the Arab region, looks set to escalate politically, in the media and in the field. In Beirut, we are witnessing daily media and political debates between the various parties to the conflict. In addition, the Saudi and Iranian ambassadors to Lebanon, Ali Awad Al-Asiri and Mohammad Fatahali respectively, are launching diplomatic campaigns against each other in order to defend their countries’ positions. In the meantime, Hezbollah and the Future Movement are exchanging words in the media against the backdrop of Saudi-Iran and the Yemeni issue, despite the fact that the two Lebanese groups continue with dialogue and security and field coordination, especially in implementing a security plan across Lebanon.
The Islamic circles in Beirut fear an escalation between the two sides in light of the speech to be delivered by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday afternoon, during a festival he is holding in the southern suburbs of Beirut in support of the Yemeni people. His speech could lead to political, media and popular reactions and may open the door to security issues in some areas, despite the efforts made by the Future Movement and Hezbollah to keep the conflict within the confines of media and political debates.
Where will this Saudi-Iran conflict lead? Is there an Arab-Islamic road map to stop it in the near future?
Informed political sources in Beirut consider such escalation to be linked to the management of other issues in the region, especially the Syrian crisis, because Saudi Arabia will not give up its lead role in Yemen, while Iran continues to have a leading role in managing the situation in Iraq. In addition to this, everything occurring in the region at the moment is being supported internationally and regionally, as evidenced by the UN Security Council’s latest resolution on Yemen, which was not vetoed by Russia, thus serving Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States’ best interests. Not only that, but there is also regional and international silence over what is occurring in Iraq and Iran’s role in the country. As for the situation in Syria, nothing has been resolved thus far, and so the conflict between Riyadh and Tehran will remain ongoing under various pretexts.
In response to this situation, official Islamic sources in Beirut suggest that the conflict is fruitless and will not achieve anything; indeed, that the only losers are the people of Yemen, on whose territory it is being played out. The sources have also stated that there are no prospects of victory for either side and they will end up sitting at the negotiation table and discussing political solutions under regional and international patronage.
The recent positions of Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt’s on the conflict, claim the Beirut contacts, and their refusal to participate in a ground war, confirm that the issue cannot be resolved and that it is not a Sunni-Shia or Arab-Iranian dispute; it is a matter of interests between Saudi Arabia, Iran and their respective allies in the region. The only solution is an Arab-Muslim regional action, with the participation of Turkey, Pakistan, Oman and other countries not involved at the moment, in order to stop the fighting and bring all of the conflicting parties to the negotiation table. All of the influential Muslim forces, groups and movements, as well as the secular unions which believe that the fighting must stop, should return to negotiations and bring an end all forms of political, media and popular escalation.
The Muslim sources in Beirut conclude that everyone must learn from the experiences of past wars, including the 1975 civil war in Lebanon. It lasted 15 years and ended with the Taif Agreement after the killing and wounding of hundreds of thousands of people and the near-destruction of the country. We should also learn from the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted seven years and ended with Ayatollah Khomeini’s acceptance of a cease-fire after millions had been killed and wounded, and at a cost of billions of dollars and the destruction of the belligerent states.
Will the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran listen to the voice of reason or will the conflict continue until the regional and international conditions are conducive to a comprehensive settlement that affects all of the issues in the region?
Translated from Arabi21, 15 April, 2015.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.