Yarmouk is a small battlefield for a big battle

It wasn’t an April Fool’s joke when news of the Islamic State (ISIS) entering the Yarmouk refugee camp spread, but ISIS spread as fast as the lie itself. One of the “optimistic” news stations reported that ISIS is controlling 90 per cent of the camp. This percentage indicates many things, but the entire area of the camp is encircled in a little over half of a square kilometre full of cramped people and buildings.

For a long time, Aknaf Bayt Al-Maqdis controlled the camp and the Syrian regime imposed a strict blockade on it, treating the inhabitants of the camp harshly, reaching the point of cutting off their supply of necessities.

No one knows anything about how ISIS is thinking or its attack and defence tactics. Its latest attack can be classified as vague in terms of military and political dealings. ISIS suddenly decided to expand outside of its southern haven, in Al-Hajar Al-Aswad district where it had a strong presence and stability. At the beginning of April, ISIS snuck through windows and gates controlled by Al-Nusra Front to reach Yarmouk, it quickly fell under the occupation of Aknaf Bayt Al-Maqdis. The suffering of the camp’s inhabitants increased, despite the fact that they were already suffering under a barrage of the regime’s bombings and a severe shortage of basic supplies.

According to Google Maps, the camp is five kilometres from the Umayyad Square, which is considered the icon of the regime’s control. This distance also represents the range of a medium-range weapon that can be easily dragged by two men and used. The presence of ISIS such a short distance away from the regime seems to be a means of holding up red cards in their faces. Perhaps Al-Nusra Front helped ISIS, its archenemy, to get so close to the regime at the expense of Aknaf Bayt Al-Maqdis, who have shown no interest in going past Yarmouk Street or Salah Al-Din Street, which are the limits of the camp. Meanwhile, ISIS has shown rampant aspirations to establish an international caliphate that not only includes Mosul, but it might as well include Manhattan too! Al-Nusra Front has expressed implicit sympathy and complicity and facilitated the entry process.

ISIS’s presence in the camp has not, as of now, posed a serious military threat to the regime, who acted coolly in response to the news. The regime was content with sending a few aircrafts to drop some of its usual barrels and arming and supporting Palestinian forces loyal to the regime. The state also tightened its suffocating grip on the inhabitants of the camp, which is customary behaviour in such cases. ISIS proved its presence by beheading some people, which has become its trademark, but it does not have the same calmness and stability it had in Al-Hajar Al-Aswad as it still facing some resistance, as well as occasional infiltrations that forces it to either withdraw or sometimes engage in sporadic battles to take control of a specific street, building, or area.

ISIS, which has a weak presence in the south, is trying to establish a bridge for itself in Yarmouk camp and it will try hard to cling to this progress and stronghold which seems important in the battle for Damascus. Al-Nusra has had an important influence on the battle, disregarding ISIS’s apostasy accusations against Al-Nusra. The real problem for Al-Assad’s regime will actually start if ISIS succeeds in holding on to the camp and reinforcing its positions there.

At that point, the regime will find itself forced to establish a new defensive line, thus exhausting new units of its forces. Meanwhile, ISIS is happy to have an opportunity to directly confront the exhausted regime, and therefore it never misses a great opportunity, such as the opportunity in Yarmouk camp.

In the camp itself, which is mostly inhabited by Palestinians, the Syrian comedian Yassin Bakoush was killed, while another unidentified man wrote on the door of a closed shop: “I swear I am hungry.” A decisive battle that may be important in the context of the greater war is ongoing between two sides that are both extremely extremist. Their weapons are the murder of comedy and the hunger that is spread across the ruins of the camp.

Translated from Al-Araby on April 17 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.