Is a solution to the Syrian conflict on the horizon?

Everything happening in Syria confirms a single truth: there is no room for a military solution for any of the Syrian factions that are carrying weapons on the ground because the military option is a red line for everyone from the Arab countries to the wider international community. It also confirms that civilians will only feel safe in areas that are controlled by armed forces.

Various armed groups are on the ground in Syria. Most have a Salafist ideology and are offshoots of Al-Qaeda to varying degrees. These groups control areas which were once under the control of the Assad regime, in part because they started to recruit fighters on social networking sites shortly after Damascus ordered airstrikes on the areas in question. It was then that the displacement of Syrian civilians started in earnest, including those who had stayed put in the early stages of the conflict. It is as if the goal of the so-called liberation process was to empty what was left of Syria’s towns, cities and populated areas. It would have been better for the Syrian opposition groups if those countries which provided them with weapons had established a no-fly zone to stop Assad’s air force from bombing civilians. This would have allowed life to continue in Syrian towns and the first wave of displaced citizens could have returned to their homes; it might even have allowed refugees to settle down, albeit in different towns around the country.

The current situation is only likely to lead to the continuation of national division, something that the official media is still ignoring. Is this media strategy merely part of a larger ploy to allow politicians to organise themselves before an agreement is reached that could save what is left of Syria and its people? It seems as though regional and Arab forces are expecting that a political solution, similar to the Taif Accords which ended the Lebanese Civil War, is on the horizon for Syria; this is a small beacon of hope in the dark reality suffocating the country. The events that will take place after the repercussions of Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen unfold, or those following the final points of the US-Iran nuclear deal, will not be the same as those that came before this moment in the region’s political history.

There are many factors affecting the Middle East that makes outside parties think that there is no link between themselves and the situation in Syria. Yet, participants at the upcoming Cairo conference are said to represent the Syrian opposition. Furthermore, Saudi Arabian leaders are also expected to meet with more than 150 Syrian personalities who all claim to be representatives of the Syrian people and their factions. The recent public appearances made by Zahran Alloush, the commander of Jayas Al-Islam, also lead many to believe that negotiations for a solution to the Syrian conflict may be made public soon. In the same context, the recent killing of Izzat Al-Duri, one of the founders of ISIS; the recent remarks advocating the need to return to Geneva 1; and the remarks of researchers outlining their predictions as to what will the fate of Bashar Al-Assad, all indicate that a possible solution to the Syrian conflict or a discussion thereof is nigh. In addition, some information has been leaked indicating that certain roadmaps have been outlined for the Syrian negotiations. All of these are understandable and can be deemed acceptable if it means finding a solution to the ongoing massacre, which has been an extraordinary tragedy in Syrian history.

However, does all of this not require the Syrian opposition groups to show their hand and set out everything clearly that has happened there over the past four years? Is this step not required before the next phase starts? We are not asking this of the regime because it is quite clear how immoral its crimes have been, but it remains the opposition’s responsibility to reveal all of their own mistakes to the public. They must claim their part of the responsibility for the political impasse that has led Syria into the abyss; that is, of course, if we truly have the intention of finding a political solution for this crisis and return to the principles set forth by the Geneva Convention. This potential solution is unlikely to take place any time soon. In the meantime, the Syrian people will remain displaced, under siege and living in fear of hunger and death while the politicians keep their hands in the mud and the country sinks to the bottom of the swamp.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.