The real challenges facing the Justice and Development Party in Turkey

I stated in one of my previous articles that the upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey do not face a serious challenge to the future of the Justice and Development party (AKP) in Turkey, which has been in power since 2002. The vast majority of opinion polls suggest that the Turkish political party will be successful once again; however, although the numbers and statistics relating to the party are somewhat set, the main challenges are what will go on to affect their governance beyond the election.

The challenge of continuing and platform renewal:

Turkish governmental administrators have been quoted as saying that maintaining one’s control on power is far more challenging than gaining power for the first time, with that said, the Justice and Development Party has been leading the political scene in Turkey since 2002. However, there have been nine different elections including presidential, parliamentary, and local referendums, all of which were won by the AKP.

At the time of the first elections in 2002, Turkey was suffering from a great deal of national debt, chaos and crisis, which led to the implementation and emergence of new economic policies that have allowed Turkey to become a regional leader today and a catalyst for a prominent regional economic renaissance. Because of the previous economic success and growth experienced by the AKP during the earlier days of its time in power, any future economic growth would now prove more difficult or challenging to achieve in a short period of time in the future.

The challenge of hereditary systems:

The current ruling Turkish party waged silent and calm wars against systems of guardianship in the country beginning with the military and ending most recently with the media. The Turkish government’s success on this front suggests, of course, that Turkey is now a beacon of democracy in the region at large.

The achievements of the Justice and Development Party during the recent period where embodied by a series of partial battles that were intermittently spaced, which now require a string that would tie them all together and allow the AKP to ensure that its success goes beyond its electoral victories. Of course, what I am referring to here is the drafting of a civilian constitution that can replace the military constitution of 1982.

The challenge of fragmentation:

The legacy of the last 30 years in Turkish political history have been determined by the policies implemented by two main political parties: the Motherland party under the leadership of the late President Turgut Ozal and the True Path (Democratic) party under the presidency of Suleyman Dumirel.

The transition of the AKP founder and current President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erodgan into the presidential palace is not an accidental event in the development of the AKP.

Justice and Development leaders deprived 70 deputies from the chance to run for the upcoming elections because of the article that limits politicians from running more than three periods within the inner-party system. A great sense of uncertainty has been heightened among party members about their future. In addition, the differences that have emerged recently among some leaders, particularly Erdogan and Davutoglu, have posed several valid questions about the cohesion of the party in the coming and undoubtedly stormy period ahead.

Facing the popular challenge and its demands:

In its quest to prevent a political impasse, the Justice and Development Party is now nearing the end of its thirteenth year as the main party in power and has attempted to implement policies that would appease various sectors in society and prevent alienating any one faction during this time. The AKP has claimed that the country is currently going through a transitional period since the onset of the last presidential elections; however, the recent period has brought into question a number of internal and external variables that demonstrate the need for the party to win over society and meet its popular demands if it wants to implement policies that can secure their future in governance.

However, the AKP and its political categorisation have proved to be closer to that of Islamist parties and for this reason, much of the popular support it used to enjoy has now declined. Secondly, this type of political platform will require a bigger electoral base to win and for a greater segment of society to support its political ideology and identity, which has proven to be more conservative and less liberal with the passing of time.

On the other hand, the newer generations who have not experienced the period of military rule and the subsequent coup and have not experienced the numerous political and economic crises which have befallen the country before the arrival of the Justice and Development Party, seem to be less afraid of the fate of the AKP and its journey in governance than the generations that have preceded them. This sentiment or mentality was reflected in the decline of voters in the previous elections who seemed to believe that the electoral outcome was a given, while others considered the results to be a reflection of the greater need for additional achievements and a new set of challenges.

Challenging a strong Turkey:

Based on what I have written above and in conclusion, it seems that the biggest challenge facing Erdogan and his colleagues is the creation of a new slogan and campaign, one that is aimed at building a strong Turkey in time for the centenary of the founding of the republic in 2023. This will be a goal that will be achieved without a lot of external pressure; however, it will be met with a great deal of internal challenges. An accomplishment of this calibre will require a great deal of economic resources to support the ambitious project on which the campaign currently runs, not to mention the need for political stability.

I do not want to suggest that the Turkish experience is facing an imminent danger, nor do I want to claim that a political success in light of the upcoming challenges will be futile and without hope, but what I intend to highlight is that the AKP will be facing a number of challenges and that it is currently navigating a minefield. The period ahead will be much more difficult than the one that has passed. Despite all of the success that the AKP has enjoyed in Turkey, it must continue to confront and solve the challenges ahead rather than relying on its past accomplishments.

Translated from Arabi21 on 4 May 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.