The Turkish parliamentary election that is scheduled to take place on 7 June is considered to be the most important since the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002. It is being held while the transition to a presidential system of government and the achievement of internal reconciliation with the Kurds are still ongoing.
The election will determine what the Turkish political scene will look like in this critical period for domestic and foreign policies. As the election date approaches and Kurdish candidates are nominated through an independent political party, the results will be a determining factor in determining government policies.
Kurdish party and elections
For the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic, the Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (DPP), which is basically the political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), is standing candidates in the election as an independent party. In the past, the Kurds ran as independents in the elections and then formed a parliamentary bloc if they had more than twenty MPs.
Why has the DPP decided to run this time? The fact that the party’s leader, Salahuddin Dimirtash, won around 10 per cent of the votes in last year’s presidential election has boosted the Kurds’ self-confidence and electoral capabilities. This stems from a relatively large electoral bloc, estimated at about 8 million voters who are concentrated mainly in the south and east of Turkey, as well as in the large cities, specifically Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
This political progress is evidenced in the launch of the Kurdish-Turkish peace process, and this has morphed into an item on Turkey’s political agenda. This was reinforced by the issue of a joint statement by the DPP and the Turkish government in February identifying the reference for peace based on the points determined by the Turkish government and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan. Despite the fact that this process has still not witnessed any practical steps or actions, it has designated the Democratic People’s Party as the representative for the Kurds in the negotiations with the government and the quest for a political solution to the Kurdish issue.
The growth of the Kurds’ regional role in the area after the Arab Spring revolutions also has to be taken into account for the electoral move. The Kurds became an important player after being a card in the regional and international considerations. The Ayn Al-Arab (Kobani) battle fought and won against ISIS inspired the Kurdish Turks and brought out their nationalism and their ambitions to gain more of the rights of which they have been deprived.
The DPP has some experience in local government since it won seats in a number of municipalities in the south and east during the recent local elections. This has allowed it to develop social relations beyond the Kurdish community and opened up a number of Turkish circles, especially on the left-wing, as well as the religious and other minorities in the country.
Despite these reasons for electoral participation, many believe that the DPP’s decision is a political risk that may eliminate the party from political life. Most of the opinion polls predict for the party less than the required 10 per cent needed to join the parliament as an independent party. This percentage has only been acquired by three major parties: the Justice and Development Party, the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist Movement Party.
Considerations of victory and loss
Turkey has one of the most important electoral obstacles in the world; a law called the “electoral threshold” which stipulates that any political party must receive 10 per cent of the total votes in order to enter parliament. This law was put in place by the army after the military coup in 1980 in an attempt to prevent the Kurds and political Islam groups from entering parliament under the pretext of political stability.
Nevertheless, the Welfare Party, followed by the Virtue Party, led by the late Necmettin Erbakan, managed to bypass this law and enter the parliament before the Justice and Development Party’s great success. The Turkish political parties, which promised to reduce this percentage, or even abolish the law altogether, have not kept their promises, and so it continues to act as the sword hanging over the necks of the smaller parties that either have to ally with the major parties to win parliamentary seats or run independently.
Part of the considerations of victory for the Democratic People’s Party is numerical, as it currently has 27 members in parliament. If it passes the electoral threshold, it will gain double this number, making it a key political force in the country.
However, such a victory would be a big loss for the Justice and Development Party, which currently has 312 seats. This is because the votes that the DPP will win are those usually given to the JDP, since it is the second largest party in the Kurdish areas. The other Turkish parties do not have any influence in the Kurdish areas.
Hence, we can say that the election battle in such areas will mainly be between the Democratic People’s Party and the Justice and Development Party, and the former believes that a victory would put Turkey into a new political reality. One of the most important aspects of this reality would be the Kurds’ transition into an influential parliamentary force consisting of about 60 MPs. It will also allow for the peace process to move to another phase on new foundations.
On the other hand, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan realises that the victory of the DPP would be a big loss for his Justice and Development Party. Among the first effects of a Kurdish win would be to deal a blow to Erdogan’s project of switching Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential system unless, of course, a coalition between the two parties is formed.
As such, Erdogan is seeking to defeat the DPP, which could see his party winning 400 out of the 550 seats in parliament. He hopes to win or retain the seats targeted by the Kurds.
The future of the Turkish-Kurdish peace process
Without a doubt, if the Kurds win 10 per cent of the votes, it will be difficult for Erdogan to achieve his political agenda of transitioning to a presidential system and writing a new constitution for the country that gives the president more privileges and authority. The Kurds have said previously that they reject the presidential system, a view which is shared by other opposition parties, especially the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist Movement Party. They fear that a presidential system will give Erdogan absolute powers, allowing one individual and one party to rule.
For Erdogan, the parliamentary election is basically a vote on the presidential system. In order to win, he needs at least two-thirds of the seats, or 367 seats. If he fails to get this many, he must win 330 seats in order to refer the project to a popular referendum. If he fails even to get that many, Erdogan will have to engage in tough bargaining with other parties and form a coalition government, which, based on Turkey’s past experiences, many believe will lead the country into a period of instability. This is due to the differences in political agendas amongst the political parties, even in terms of ideology.
There are some Kurds and Turks who believe that the victory of the Democratic People’s Party will be better for Turkey, although it will be a loss for the Justice and Development Party. Electoral failure could lead the way to extremism and violence, as the DPP has hinted that if it loses, it will go to Diyar Bakr and form an autonomous local parliament. Ankara will not accept such a separatist approach, even if it is forced to fight a new war with the PKK.
Hence, there are those who believe that a Kurdish victory would be better for the consolidation of democracy in Turkey. They also believe that a win for the DPP will push the Kurdish party and the Justice and Development Party into a mutually beneficial alliance imposed by shared aspirations and political pragmatism. Erdogan wants a presidential system and the Kurds want a political solution to their cause that stipulates their recognition in the constitution and grants them a form of local government. This sort of alliance should not be ruled out.
Whatever the case, it is clear that the Turkish election campaign may produce some surprises and different possibilities. In any event, we can say that the nature of governance and politics in Turkey after the parliamentary election will be linked to the results of the Democratic People’s Party.
Translated from Al-Jazeera net, 2 June, 2015.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.