Iraq: a democratic or strategic movement

The latest Iraqi political developments come from that country that is strategically very important to all the countries of the region, including the Gulf, Iran, and America. They suggest that the popular movement has returned strongly, supported by the Sistani Shia reference, whose representative emphasized during a sermon last Friday that the formation of an Iraqi government is long overdue. Everyone is awaiting the new Iraqi government and its handling of very important matters, such as approving political and economic reforms, fighting corruption, and prosecuting the corrupt. It is also expected to decide the fate of the official Iraqi alliances with the US and informal alliances with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr issued a statement calling on the US to announce the withdrawal of its forces from Iraq according to a specific timetable, to respect the sovereignty of Iraq, and not to use its airspace for any warfare or intelligence gathering, otherwise, it would be met with violent resistance from the Iraqis. In return, Al-Sadr promised to protect the Americans if they began implementing a withdrawal plan, as well as deter and prosecute those who attack them.

Muqtada al-Sadr is considered one of the least extreme and anti-American Shia cleric compared to the leaders of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces. His voicing of such clear and public hostility puts the Americans in a confrontation with all Iraqi Shias, and they are of course a difficult factor in the Iraqi equation. Therefore, this matter does not only threaten the remainder of the American forces in Iraq, but will inevitably end their fate.

READ: Violence escalates in Iraq as government pushes to end protests

The latest American reactions to the Iraqi politicians’ demand that American forces leave Iraq, they were recently expressed by the Special American Envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, who considered the Iraqi parliament’s decision to remove all foreign forces from Iraq not legally binding, because the American agreement was made with the Iraqi authority represented by the government, and it alone can make a decision in this regard. It seems that everyone is counting on the popular movement in Iraq. Will it succeed? Or will it be nipped in the bud like the majority of the Arab revolutions? If it does succeed, how will it deal with the major strategic dilemmas that it will inherit, such as Iraqi-Iranian relations, the strategic partnership with the US, and the Iraqi-Gulf relations, and this is what interests us.

In conclusion, what is striking about the political battle in Iraq is that the US and some non-democratic Arabs have no choice but to support the Iraqi popular uprising, and to call for the establishment of a sound democratic system, in order to be able to neutralise the non-national forces, and make the Iraqi decision distributed among the Iraqi forces. Therefore, no one can monopolise decisions and this is a strategic guarantee for the Arabs and Americans that Iraq will not side with Iran at the expense of the national interest, which will probably intersect with the interests of Arabs and Americans.

READ: Violence escalates in Iraq as government pushes to end protests

In summary, we hope that Iraq will be democratic in order to spread the infection in the region on the one hand, and to be the state of balance between Iran and the Gulf on the other hand, to set the pace of regional security away from the Americans who began blackmailing the countries in the region in public during Trump’s presidency we cannot confront.

I will not hide my happiness at the puzzlement of some Arabs who typically support the military against the Arab revolutions, because in the Iraqi case, there is no strong army that can be supported, and therefore democracy has become the solution.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Arab on 26 January 2020 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.