Sudan shows all the signs of being a collapsing state

With each new day, the situation in Sudan worsens and becomes more complex and aggravated, with no solutions or exit strategies on the horizon. Instead, all the signs are that the state is collapsing.

Shooting at peaceful protestors is a manifestation of this, whereas before it was a crime. In the city of Wad Madani, someone was shooting at peaceful demonstrators earlier this week while condemning the order of the Sovereignty Council not to open fire. Either Sudan’s leadership is not leading or controlling its security forces, or they are disobeying orders deliberately. In any case, nobody is holding them to account. Are the country’s leaders deceiving the people, and not telling them the truth? Such disarray is another sign of a collapsing state.

When the head of the judiciary protests against the behaviour of the authority that appointed him; when members of the authority itself and the public prosecution service do likewise and are joined by doctors, war veterans and others in vigils against the violent state oppression of the people; when governors resign and ministers refuse office; and when the people’s protests close the main roads, the arteries of the economy; when all of this happens, we are seeing a country on the verge of collapse.

Despite the notorious dawn raids, from which even Sudan’s women are not spared, and the increase in the number of young martyrs killed very deliberately by snipers, it is clear that the people will not back down and stop taking to the streets. Ever since Sudan won its independence, it has been true to say that any regime or authority that addresses its people in the language of bullets and force, no matter how strong it is at the time, is destined to fall sooner or later.

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Sudan is at the stage that requires everyone to come together to find an effective and safe way out of this dangerous situation, which is threatening to consume us as we are fragmented and divided. It is true that the revolutionary flame still burns, and that the resistance committees have proven their effectiveness. However, protecting the revolution and advancing towards victory requires more than one kind of weapon. In this context, several groups have launched initiatives to seek a safe way out of the current crisis.

Some of these come from outside the country, the most important of which is the initiative entrusted to the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission Sudan (UNITAMS), which led to the visit of the African Union’s Commissioner for Peace and Security to the country. Nobody refuses to listen to any of these initiatives as long as they originate from platforms that are respected by all, whether institutions or individuals, and as long as they acknowledge that the political crisis triggered by the 25 October coup measures have plunged Sudan towards a dead end, threatening its security and the safety of its people. Nobody will reject them as long as they seek to end the violence and bloodshed, end the oppression and work towards a consensus on mechanisms that prioritise the aims of removing the former regime in its entirety, seeking democratic transformation, enabling civilian rule and sparing the country from more catastrophic conflicts and civil war.

However, there is some concern about multiple initiatives, especially from outside Sudan, as they make it look like a marketplace for such schemes, which creates confusion with priorities lost in the process. It is too easy for the interests of others to be mixed in with the interests of the country.

READ: Sudanese opposition condemns ‘systematic violence’ against peaceful protestors

I believe that it is best for Sudan if these initiatives are unified, with a diversity of stages and mechanisms. We need to support the UN initiative provided that it coordinates to a large extent with the initiative of Sudanese university directors, who have made great strides in communicating with all the forces of change in the country in search of a united political discourse and the commonalities between the various charters put forward by these forces. It is worth noting that all of these initiatives call for a round-table conference as a means to reach a consensus on the way out of this crisis. I proposed such a conference in May 2020, when I believed that the transitional period had reached a dead end.

In general, any initiative and any conference will only be meaningful and feasible if they proceed from two main assumptions: that the partnership formula between the military and civilian component which has governed during the transitional period has completely failed; and that it is necessary to have the political will for change through a unified platform and leadership. Once again, I salute the initiative of the Sudanese university administrators, who are making a great effort to create common ground among the civilian forces of change, regardless of their size and proposals.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 23 January 2022

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.