No way to predict second 6 February quake in Turkiye: French geophysicist

There was no way to predict the second earthquake that took place on 6 February in Turkiye, according to an eminent French seismologist and geophysicist, referring to the two major quakes early this month, Anadolu News Agency reports.

Xavier Le Pichon, 85, a Professor emeritus at Paris’ College de France, told news channel, Haberturk, that due to its geological traits, Turkiye is a country that needs to be prepared for many quakes.

He stressed that Turkiye has two big fault lines to its north and east.

The first quake at around 4 am on 6 February, with magnitude 7.7 on the East Anatolian fault line, caused Anatolia to move west by 4 meters (13 feet), and this means a drift of 6 millimetres (one-quarter inch) per year on average, he explained.

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“This means that we need 500 years to gather the energy for a four-meter move,” said Le Pichon.

Referring to Pazarcik in the province of Kahramanmaras, where the first quake had its epicentre, he explained: “An earthquake jolted Pazarcik in 1513. So we can say that … the quake that could have occurred 500 years later. This was expected.”

But Le Pichon underlined that the second quake was entirely different, and provoked a move of 10 meters (nearly 34 feet).

“This fault line gathered energy very slowly and, apparently, the stress from the first quake provoked the second one,” he continued. “The second quake was completely unpredictable. It was impossible to predict a second quake there. This is impossible.”

But Le Pichon said he believes people living on the East Anatolian fault line can rest easy about more quakes in the near term.

“Even if small tremors occur, you are safe for forgetting centuries now. But we must not, though we do. We repeat history and build houses in the same area,” he said.

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Possible quake in Istanbul

Le Pichon, who has studied the Marmara fault line in north-western Turkiye extensively, said that Istanbul is close to this important fault line, and its various regions will be differently impacted by a quake.

He stressed that buildings must be built according to seismic rules and regulations.

“I expect a single quake of more than magnitude 7.6 in Marmara,” he said, adding that some of his colleagues expect two or three quakes.

6 February quakes

The magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 tremors on 6 February  were centred in Kahramanmaras and rocked 10 other provinces – Hatay, Gaziantep, Adiyaman, Malatya, Adana, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Osmaniye, Elazig and Sanliurfa. More than 13 million people have been affected by the devastating quakes.

Several countries in the region, including Syria and Lebanon, also felt the trembles that struck in less than 10 hours.

More than 41,000 people were killed by the back-to-back quakes in Turkiye, according to the latest official figures. Thousands of others were injured.

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