On the obstacles to the war between Hezbollah and Israel

Nothing is calm between the south of the Litani and the north of Kiryat Shmona, as the smoke of fires and shells covers the field, which involves raging movement on both sides. Many parties are awaiting zero hour, the heat of which is expected to extend beyond the borders of the current battle, with many times more intense fire, and combat patterns that may be the first of its kind in the region, after more than eight months of preparing the battle equipment and target banks.

On the Lebanese side, Hezbollah wishes it could find a way to climb down from the tree, such as the American administration imposing a balanced form of agreement between the two conflicting parties, so that it could declare its victory the next day. Despite its insistence on linking the cessation of its targeting of areas in northern Palestine to the cessation of the war on Gaza, Hezbollah was surprised by the length of the war. Its internal and regional circumstances, and its list of priorities, do not allow it to wage war at the present time with Israel. An all-out war has different calculations for Hezbollah, the most important of which is the problem of the resources needed for a war that may last a long time. It is true that the party has stored significant quantities of missiles over the past years, but the historical experience of wars proves that the parties cannot use all their weapons, given the differences in battle conditions and calculations and theoretical assessments and predictions, especially in light of Hezbollah lacking strategic depth. This makes its effectiveness reduced to a small area limited to southern and eastern Lebanon.

Netanyahu’s extremist government seems extremely confused, as Hezbollah managed, using its tactics and psychological warfare, to undermine the confidence of the Israeli army leaders in the possibility of achieving a clear victory in the comprehensive war against it. This is given the army’s exhaustion and heavy losses in Gaza, and its inability to achieve a clear victory against the Palestinian factions. Also included in Israeli calculations is the magnitude of the expected economic losses as a result of the destruction that Hezbollah will achieve on strategic facilities and construction in the areas of northern Palestine. If these are added to the losses caused by the war on Gaza, this means that Israel will be faced with a bleak economic reality that may be difficult to restore for years to come.

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Do these obstacles deter the two sides of the war from waging it? After the 2006 war, expectations suggested that another war would break out between the two parties, once again, and the possible scenarios for this conflict were built. As a result of the recurrence of tensions between the two parties and the two sides backing down from engaging in war, there was a belief that the 2006 war was the last war between Israel and Hezbollah, especially in light of the party’s preoccupation with regional wars, especially in Syria and, to a lesser extent, in Yemen, and given Iran’s priorities, strategic directions and geopolitical preferences. Will the crisis between the two parties end without having to go to war?

The data regarding this is different this time to any other time before. Israel now has a problem with the residents of the north, who have become convinced that what Hamas did in the Gaza envelope will be repeated by Hezbollah, and that it will not be long before this happens. Therefore, they believe their lives will not be stable in the north given their sense of a constant existential threat. They will not return to the north unless their governments find a drastic solution for them, i.e., ending the threat of Hezbollah once and for all, either by removing it from their areas, by finding new mechanisms to control the situation on both sides, or by completely eliminating the party.

Recently, all initiatives led by external parties, such as the French initiative, as well as American pressure through its envoy, Amos Hochstein, have failed to reassure the Israelis due to Hezbollah’s rejection of proposals demanding that it voluntarily move away from the border, evacuate the areas south of the Litani and implement Security Council Resolution 1701 which stipulates that the party should move back a certain distance from the border. In addition, according to Israeli standards, Hezbollah exceeded the permissible and possible rules of engagement by all means and, therefore, backing down from the war against it would mean agreeing to the new rules of engagement, which is something that Israel, both the government and the army, do not accept. Iran’s hand has also become long and, therefore, being content with this extent of war would mean that Iran has become able to decide the future of Israel, which is something that even the US will not accept. While Joe Biden administration’s warned against a war between Israel and Hezbollah, the war has actually created a reality that is difficult to ignore, because of its impact on the balance of power and in the weights of actors in the entire region. This will have repercussions on the state of the distribution of power in the regional system.

Hezbollah, as well as Iran, know very well that this war has dangerous geopolitical aspects, as regional and international circles await its outcome to form a new regional order, in which Iran and its arms will not have an influential and effective role. If Hezbollah loses the war, the loss will extend to all of Iran’s arms in the region, and Bashar Al-Assad’s regime will find an opportunity to escape from Iran’s influence and join the influential regional powers. It may even join the rest of the countries that have normalised relations with Israel, due to its need for rehabilitation and financing.

The conditions currently appear to be ripe for the outbreak of war between Hezbollah and Israel more than ever before, and the question remains how it will be managed, in terms of its extent and limits, especially since both sides are suffering from issues with resources and logistics, and fears of the catastrophic results anticipated by their assessments and calculations.

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This article appeared in Arabic in Al Araby on 25 June, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.