Sudan's army prepare to militarily end the civil war after major gains in Khartoum

For many Sudanese the military’s capture of three strategic bridges in the capital Khartoum has been warmly welcomed; while at the same time the recent operations have also been viewed as long overdue. Despite the advances, questions remain about the timing of the army’s decision to put pressure on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In many ways, the recent event raises more questions than it answers; not least about the expected strategy in the next few days or even weeks. However, most importantly the question remains: is Sudan witnessing the beginning of the end of the RSF? Or ultimately how will these events play out in any upcoming negotiations?

What seems clear is that the army has spent most of the last year absorbing the shock of the concerted attempt to overthrow Sudan’s government. Observers surmise that the attempt by the RSF to capture most of the military areas in the capital and the provinces put the army at its lowest point. It also appears some important lessons were learned by the leadership in the first moments of the war. Experts say the first lesson – and perhaps the most important – was that the strategic military sites had to be protected at all cost. The army managed to succeed in every site with the exception of the Jabel Awliya base. Maintaining the strategic bases continued to place a strain on the leadership, but the army continued to defend itself in extremely complex and challenging circumstances.

The second step is based on the understanding of the principles of urban warfare, which dictate that the ground in itself is worthless. Under the circumstances, the army began to weaken the RSF’s resources and manpower by using strategic advantages. For example, reports say the army was able to use armoured vehicles in great numbers to greatly weaken the militia forces and caused them to lose thousands of fighters.

The third and decisive step was that the leadership of the armed forces summoned retired officers, non-commissioned officers and soldiers outside service, then opened the doors to tens of thousands of mobilised personnel who were given advanced training over the past year and a half, in addition to thousands of religiously motivated ‘mujahideen’ fighters who rushed to join the army forces.

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Political and military armed movements led by Mini Minawi, governor of Darfur, and Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim’s fighting forces moved from a neutral stance to join ranks alongside the army. Indeed, the establishment of Joint Forces made all the difference in the city of El Fasher, reinforcing the defence of the city.

The fourth step was perhaps the greatest dilemma. It is no secret that all the warehouses where the army stored weapons were lost on the first day of the war following the seizure of all the weapons factories in Khartoum. The dilemma was the army lacked sufficient ammunition and weapons for the battle. Describing the state of play, commentator Adil Al-Baz of El Watan newspaper wrote: “The state lost more than 80% of its resources, so it was facing an opponent armed to the teeth, and its coffers overflowing with billions of Emirati dirhams and it had no problem with armament or ammunition.”

In light of this situation, obtaining huge financial resources became a priority to replace weapons and ammunition from abroad. Sufficient to say there were many battles that were taking place around the world to obtain the required weapons. The battle is still ongoing. Now that the army forces have found sufficient armaments they have opened up in all theatres of operations in the capital and the provinces, during which they were able, within hours, to take over the most important bridges of the capital and penetrate into its centre, a move that may greatly change the balance of the war. As for the future, President Al-Burhan announced in his speech before the United Nations General Assembly in New York: “The roadmap to end the war is clear, combat operations must end, and this will not happen except by withdrawing the rebel militias from the areas they occupied and displaced their people, and gathering them in specific areas and disarming them.”

With spontaneous celebrations breaking out over the weekend among displaced Sudanese communities, a complete victory has now become a real possibility, with talk that members of the RSF were beginning to negotiate their surrender on favourable conditions. It is expected that Sudan will soon have to consider how best to reunite its peoples who will no doubt return to their central demand of civilian rule when the victory has been won.

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