The threats to everyone in the Middle East are very real, Israel included

These are unprecedented times. In another major escalation last Thursday, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah in a massive air strike in Beirut. The political murder of the political head and religious figurehead of Hezbollah is a serious setback, although many experts predict that the movement is unlikely to collapse as a result.

Hezbollah is one of the key proxies of the Iranian regime and is largely a by-product of the Lebanon-Israel war of the 1980s and Lebanon civil war (1975-1990). Since taking the leadership role within Hezbollah in the early 1990s, Nasrallah has maintained strong ties with Iran, from which the movement gets financial and logistical support as well as arms. In 2006, he led the resistance to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and siege of Beirut and the Zionist army was forced to leave Lebanon. Since then, his popularity has grown in Lebanon and beyond, and he has made a brutal enemy in the Zionist state.

When Israel launched a major offensive against the Palestinians in Gaza — it has killed almost 42,000 and wounded more than 96,000, mainly women and children over the past year — Hezbollah launched rockets against northern Israel in solidarity with the people of occupied Palestine. The killing of Nasrallah followed massive Israeli air strikes across Lebanon and the mass detonation of explosives in communications devices which killed 37 Lebanese and wounded 3,000 others, as well as the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of July.

All of this confirms the widely-held belief that Israel has no interest in agreeing a ceasefire in Gaza.

It is also obvious that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to escalate his war across the region in order to end legitimate resistance to his country’s illegal occupation of Palestine. Netanyahu has also made it clear that he will not countenance the internationally-agreed — and US-backed — “two-state solution” with the creation of an independent State of Palestine alongside Israel. The long-term strategic goal for Israel is to widen the conflict in order to weaken Iran’s network of proxies in the Middle East, and downgrade Iran’s capabilities across the region.

Iran is being patient about these extrajudicial killings and Israel’s brutal genocide of the Palestinians and attacks on Lebanon. It has not carried out any major act of retaliation against Israel for killing Haniyeh in Tehran. We will have to see what it does following Nasrallah’s murder, who was much more important for Tehran than Haniyeh was. Key insiders believe that the Islamic Republic wants to avoid war on Iranian soil. Others have opined that Tehran lacks the political will and capacity to deter Israeli provocation by retaliating. Whatever the reasons, Israel and its allies view this as a major weakness on the part of Tehran, which is isolated globally, with few friends on an international level, and is technologically inferior. As an ally of Russia, it is connected to the war in Ukraine.

READ: Iran says its response to Israeli ‘crimes’ will come ‘at right time’

Meanwhile, the US has not only backed Israel to the hilt in its genocide against the Palestinians, citing the Zionist state’s alleged “right to defend itself”, but has also now pledged full support for its action in Lebanon. If Israeli aggression leads to a regional war involving Iran, the US will be fighting alongside the occupation state.

Presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both support Israel, even as it commits war crimes and crimes against humanity. The pro-Israel lobby is extremely influential in US political life, and Israel enjoys unquestioned bipartisan support.

However, despite the strength of the pro-Israel lobby, the occupation state is losing ground in terms of public support in the US (and elsewhere). From university campuses to streets across America, people of all faiths and none, all races and backgrounds gather to support the Palestinian cause. Palestinian rights are legitimate, but they are being violated and ignored.

Various reports indicate that Israel’s approval rate in the US has dropped to 49 per cent since its genocide began.

Similar trends can be seen in other Western countries, while some, such as Ireland, Spain and Norway, have recognised the state of Palestine.

At the UN, the General Assembly has passed a resolution providing an exact timeline for Israel to end its occupation of Palestine within 12 months. The International Court of Justice, where Israel faces the charge of genocide brought by South Africa, has issued an “advisory opinion” that the occupation is illegal. And the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Human rights organisations B’Tselem, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have all declared that Israel has passed the threshold for being guilty of the crime of apartheid, which is akin to a crime against humanity. Support for the Palestinian cause is clearly growing at all levels, and is unlikely to diminish without a ceasefire in Gaza (and Lebanon), and the creation of an independent state of Palestine in reality as well as in symbolically.

READ: Entire family of 17 wiped out in Israeli strike in eastern Lebanon

Nevertheless, a pro-Iran account on social media which has hundreds of thousands of followers accepts that Tehran and its proxies miscalculated the potential risk and repercussions of Israel’s war plans, and have suffered in the short-term as a result. There is a real threat to the Islamic Republic from Israel and its allies, including the US. However, Iran is neither Hamas nor Hezbollah, and is equipped with modern weapons, manpower and a possible nuclear weapon, as well as the backing of Russia and China. If Israel decides to risk a war with Iran, a doomsday scenario could ensue in the Middle East.

Both Russia and China have enhanced their status and leverage in the Middle East since the outbreak of the Gaza genocide on 7 October last year. Both have criticised repeatedly US imperialist policies in the Middle East that have strengthened Israel’s hand. Interestingly, Moscow and Beijing are taking the lead at the UN Security Council in the efforts to secure a ceasefire. And it was China which brokered a major deal between Hamas and Fatah in Beijing to unite for the common cause. However, western experts believe that Russia and China are backing Iran and its proxies to distract the US from Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific region, where Washington is determined to contain Russian and Chinese influence.

In the Arab world, any goodwill generated by the 2020 Abraham Accords which saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco normalise relations with Israel has not been transformed into a normalisation deal between the occupation state and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. De facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has made it clear that there is no chance of normalisation with Israel without the establishment of an independent state of Palestine, on the 1967 borders. This was a major blow to the US which was hoping for normalisation between Israel and the Kingdom in exchange for civil nuclear technology and a defence agreement, along with the formation of a common front against Iran and its proxies. Such hopes have been dashed.

Despite its short-term victories, due almost entirely to US financial, diplomatic and military support and its strong technological superiority and penetration in the Middle East, Israel will undoubtedly have to accept the Palestinians and their legitimate rights sooner or later. The Palestinians are supported overwhelming in the Global South and are gaining ground in the Global North. The US, meanwhile, has lost much of its goodwill and reputation across the international community for giving Israel’s genocide unqualified support. As tensions rise in the Middle East, the threats to everyone in the region, Israel included, are very real and are not going to be diminished by Israeli belligerence.

OPINION: For every Nasrallah who falls, many more will emerge

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.