A pause, not peace

Both Israel and Hezbollah are claiming victory despite both being bruised as a ceasefire hopes to end hostilities between the two and turn the page on one of the seven fronts of Israel’s current aggression against its neighbours. Lebanon has experienced ceasefires before, and this one, like the others, will succeed in the interim only to lead to another broader conflict. It is a pause, not peace.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands to gain the most from this deal as he will likely use it to enhance his political career at home and improve his moral standing in the eyes of the West, particularly following the ICC warrant issued for his arrest on war crimes charges. Moreover, this deal offers the Israeli military a respite while awaiting the installation of the Trump administration — the US president-elect is viewed as friendlier than incumbent Joe Biden — within the 60-day ceasefire window.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah remains intact

There are no clear winners in this conflict, though. Israel has not achieved all its objectives against Hezbollah, and the Lebanese movement has not experienced the same level of strategic success it achieved in 2006. This time, it has also experienced the decimation of its senior leadership and infiltration of its communication supply chain that stunted its response in the initial stages of Israel’s invasion. Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah remains intact and, like Hamas, has demonstrated a continuity of leadership that remains focused on its mission to resist Israeli aggression and occupation. Its missile and drone capabilities have kept Israel off-balance and on high alert since the beginning of the war, but failed to divert its resources away from the Gaza Strip and curb the genocide of the Palestinians. Consequently, Netanyahu’s warning about destroying Lebanon like Gaza expanded the war in the country, with nearly 4,000 Lebanese civilians killed and with damage to the economy and infrastructure estimated at $8.5 billion.

READ: Israel northern residents fume at ceasefire, still feel vulnerable to attack

Joe Biden’s push for a ceasefire is symbolic, at best; a temporary solution aimed at salvaging a disastrous legacy whilst hoping to keep some semblance of dignity as his tenure nears its end. His entire focus during his speech was on making Lebanon and not Hezbollah a stakeholder, in essence giving the responsibility to the Lebanese Army to prevent Hezbollah from crossing the Litani River, a capacity it does not have.

The Lebanese Army functions more like a police force than a traditional military

Biden has said that Hezbollah will not be able to exist or rebuild in the future, which shows how tone-deaf the US approach has been in this conflict and how it has failed to understand the dynamics of the region. The Lebanese Army functions more like a police force than a traditional military, which is why Hezbollah came into existence in the first place. Even the Lebanese president has confessed that Hezbollah is an essential part of Lebanon’s defence. The Lebanese government and its army cannot pressure Hezbollah as it is part of the social fabric of Lebanon, and also has a significant political presence in the country. Hezbollah fighters are primarily from the south of Lebanon and live there. Irrespective of being backed by Iran, the movement operates as a civilian militia rather than an organisation imposed from the outside.

This connection to the land is a key explanation for Hezbollah’s resilience; you cannot easily displace a group of people who are native to an area, as the Lebanese in the south are. The organisation will recover and re-emerge after setbacks, with its ranks likely to grow, particularly given the public’s awareness that the organisation and its leadership face the same risks as the men fighting on the front lines. The assassination of many of Hezbollah’s senior members — Hasan Nasrallah, for one — is a prime example of leading from the front. The understanding that all ranks are equal and that the leadership is genuinely committed and incorruptible by power fosters trust among the public, resulting in more recruits.

The ceasefire will be fragile

However, the ceasefire deal has all the hallmarks of something made to fail, with the dubious clause that Israel has the right to self-defence, while no such provision is there for Hezbollah, demonstrating the continued double standards of US diplomacy. Israel will use this time to plan a new strategy targeting Hezbollah positions through surgical strikes, effectively bleeding the organisation and degrading its ability to operate and organise, despite this being the occupation state’s objective when its troops invaded Lebanon in September. The ceasefire will be fragile, and Israel has specific plans to weaken Hezbollah gradually, which will be much easier operationally compared with the total onslaught that it has been engaged in, suffering heavy losses in the south. By trying to degrade Hezbollah, Netanyahu will put northern Israel in the crosshairs once again, as it will see missile barrages targeting the northern occupied territories, taking everyone back to square one. Even as Hezbollah is pushed beyond the Litani River, it will still be able to reach large population centres and critical infrastructure in Israel due to the extensive range of its missiles.

In its current form, therefore, the ceasefire is like a pause button on a time bomb. Netanyahu feels that he has redeemed himself domestically and internationally, with Biden self-congratulating himself on saving his legacy while Hezbollah, battered but resilient, lives to fight another day. A return to chaos looks inevitable with an incoming Trump administration. Time will tell.

FACTBOX: What does the US-brokered truce ending Israel-Hezbollah fighting include?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.