Will Trump push Iran towards nuclear deterrence and the East, or open door to diplomacy?

As Iran confronts an evolving global order, marked by increasing Western pressure and shifting power dynamics, it faces some critical decision-making. To safeguard its security and interests, Iran seeks to recalibrate its foreign policy, pursuing its own nuclear deterrent and strategic alliances with China and Russia. These steps are not only logical, but also necessary responses to the realities on the ground.

Indeed, what Iran is doing — a nuclear deterrent and alignment with the East — is not a random choice, but a necessary response to constant hostility from Western powers. This hostility is deeply rooted in Israeli influence over Western foreign policy, where ensuring Israel’s strategic dominance in the region has shaped a confrontational approach towards Iran. Such policies have left Tehran with little choice but to strengthen its defences and seek partnerships that counter these adversarial forces.

Iran’s history is filled with external threats, from the Arab conquests and Mongol invasions to the Allied occupation during World War Two and the devastating Iran-Iraq War. These experiences underscore the country’s strategic vulnerability and the imperative for robust defence capabilities. For decades, Tehran has sought to address these vulnerabilities through creating an “Axis of Resistance” and its missile programme, aiming to deter aggression from adversaries such as the US and Israel.

While the “Axis of Resistance” once served as a deterrent, its efficacy has waned due to setbacks in Syria, serious damage to Hezbollah and the West-Israel-Arab bloc’s plan to target Iran’s allies in Iraq and Yemen. Nuclear deterrence thus emerges as not only a countermeasure against Western threats, but also as a bargaining chip in the global system.

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Nuclear deterrence serves as a powerful tool in modern geopolitics. It not only bolsters Iran’s defensive capabilities but also elevates its status as a regional power, forcing adversaries to think twice before escalating conflicts. The symbolic and strategic weight of nuclear capability cannot be overstated; it provides leverage in negotiations and reinforces Iran’s independence in an era of heightened tensions. However, nuclear deterrence must be accompanied by pragmatic diplomacy and a clear-eyed assessment of the regional and global landscape.

The international system is undergoing a profound transformation.

The unipolar dominance of the US is giving way to a multipolar order, with China and Russia emerging as pivotal actors. For Iran, this transition presents both challenges and opportunities. Aligning with these Eastern powers could provide Tehran with the economic and political support necessary to counter Western pressures.

China, with its burgeoning economic influence, and Russia, with its assertive military and security posture, offer Iran pathways to enhance its regional and international standing. The synergy between Iran’s strategic location and its energy resources makes it an indispensable partner in a multipolar world. Leveraging these partnerships could strengthen Iran’s hand in navigating the complexities of global politics.

Iran’s geopolitical landscape is fraught with challenges, though. From Pan-Turkism and NATO’s presence in the South Caucasus, to the rise of the US-backed extremist groups in Central Asia and Afghanistan, Tehran faces a spectrum of security threats.

The Caucasus and Central Asia are also of great importance to Russia due to their strategic location. Given the fragility of the post-USSR Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Caucasus countries, the Western-Israeli bloc is actually pursuing projects to contain Russia, Iran and China in the Caucasus and Central Asia by creating insecurity. Given the fact that Russia is the main player in these regions, cooperation between Tehran, Moscow and Beijing can play an effective role in countering common threats.

For instance, trilateral efforts in Central Asia could address the threats posed by the growth of extremist groups in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well as in Afghanistan, such as the Taliban and ISIS-K, ensuring the security of critical economic projects. Similarly, collaboration with Beijing in the Persian Gulf could counterbalance US and Israeli influence while reinforcing Iran’s role as a key energy supplier to China. Such partnerships are not merely tactical; they are strategic investments in Iran’s long-term security and prosperity.

Despite systemic shifts in global power, the US remains committed to preserving its hegemony.

This includes efforts to prevent the rise of Middle East regional powers like Iran. Washington’s approach, grounded in John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, seeks to activate geopolitical fault lines to destabilise rival nations. From the Ukraine war to tensions in the South China Sea, the US strategy is clear: create insecurity and weaken rivals.

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Iran’s foreign policy, however, has often faltered in the face of this reality. Attempts to revive relations with the West, including the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015, have yielded limited results. Western powers viewed the JCPOA not as a mutual agreement, but as a disarmament project aimed at curbing Iran’s independence. This fundamental clash of visions underscores the futility of relying on Western compromise.

In response, Tehran should logically embrace its strategic alignment with Eastern powers. While not without their limitations, Russia and China are more likely to respect Iran’s aspirations for regional leadership. Many Iranians have reached the conclusion that by deepening these alliances, Iran can sidestep the pitfalls of Western negotiations and focus on building a resilient and independent foreign policy.

Iran and Western powers each stand at a crossroads.

For Iran, the choices it makes today will shape its role in a rapidly changing world. Yet, this vision requires overcoming internal policy contradictions and the so-called “paradigmatic chaos” that has plagued Tehran’s decision-making. A coherent strategy, rooted in realist principles and informed by historical lessons, is essential. By aligning its policies with the realities of a multipolar world, Iran can navigate the complexities of this transitional era with confidence and purpose.

The incoming Trump administration will be faced with two distinct paths: either its policies continue to push Iran toward developing its own nuclear deterrent and forming stronger alliances with China and Russia, or it takes steps to acknowledge and respect Iran’s right to exist as a sovereign and influential regional power. Given Iran’s current ambivalence in its foreign policy direction, the next Trump administration has a critical opportunity to engage with Tehran constructively. By recognising the complexities and potential flexibility in Iran’s global and regional strategies, the US could pursue diplomatic efforts to dissuade Tehran from pursuing a nuclear deterrent or deepening its partnerships with Eastern powers.

To achieve this, the US would need to reassess the role of Israeli influence in shaping its Iran policy. A more balanced approach would involve addressing Iran’s economic challenges and security concerns, as well as its enduring commitment to sovereignty and regional leadership. Such an approach could foster conditions for meaningful dialogue and potentially reshape Iran’s strategic trajectory.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.