Can the UAE’s promise to stop sending Sudan’s RSF weapons be believed?

As Sudan’s army struggles militarily to bring the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under control, the United Arab Emirates’ statement to the US that “it is not now transferring any weapons to the RSF and will not do so going forward,” is a major development if the small Gulf state is to be believed. The US administration said it would “monitor for indicators of the credibility of these assurances provided by the UAE,” US President Joe Biden’s coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk wrote. “I commit to providing you with the executive branch’s up-to-date assessment in that regard by Jan. 17,” he added

Understanding why the UAE has been destabilising Sudan is to misunderstand Sudan’s geopolitical importance in the region. Having signed the Abraham Accords in September 2020, analysts believe that the UAE is now free to pursue neo-colonial policies which would ensure that the tiny state is able to control and conquer large corners of the world.

Geopolitically, Sudan is at a critical nexus bordering the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and East Africa, but Sudan’s coveted Red Sea coast adds another layer of complexity. The Red Sea has become a pivotal theatre for geopolitical rivalries as foreign powers compete for influence in the strategically vital region.

Read: The most difficult question about stopping the war in Sudan

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both having worked closely with Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the RSF, during the conflict in Yemen, seek to exploit the Red Sea for tourism and commerce links respectively. Red Sea tourism is part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and the UAE is preparing to construct the $6 billion Abu Amama port complex on the Red Sea. Although Saudi Arabia has taken a more neutral position in the conflict, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are hedging their bets on an outcome that will allow them to move forward with their projects and provide security against advisories in the region.

For Russia, who opposes Western hegemony, the prize is the revival of the agreement between Russia and Sudan on the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan. Since the beginning of the war, the agreement had been put on hold, but not abandoned. In June 2024, Malik Agar, the deputy chairman of the Sudanese Transitional Sovereignty Council, commented on the revival of the agreement saying that Sudan is very interested in reviving the agreement on building a Russian navy hub on the Red Sea, according to the Sudan Tribune. Although Russia supported the RSF initially, it has to hedge its bets on the Sudanese army (SAF) which still controls the Red Sea coast.

In March of this year, Iran reportedly requested to set up a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. Although the request was rejected, Gulf countries’ concerns remain high over Iran supplying the SAF with military equipment, including drone technology, and benefitting from an interdependent relationship. In sum, the outcome of the war in Sudan could be a strategic game changer in deciding which international players emerge dominant in the Middle East, with regional neighbours and foreign sponsors all looking to protect their interest. Concern for the Sudanese suffering from the carnage unfortunately is not part of the equation.

Few countries in Africa can boast the abundance of natural resources found in Sudan. Oil, gas, iron ore, silver, copper, manganese, gypsum, tungsten and a host of other natural resources make Sudan attractive to world powers. However, the one resource, agreed upon by analysts, at the core of the conflict is gold. Gold is financing this war and making each faction a beneficiary of friend and foe alike. The gold trade is buzzing in Sudan with both sides having protected gold mines in areas controlled by them. As Africa’s third-largest producer of gold, Sudan’s gold reserves have been estimated at 1,550 tonnes. It has seen its gold production surpass pre-war levels, according to official figures. However, according to traders, this is an underestimate. Sudan’s porous borders rife with smuggling make it difficult to report an accurate figure.

Billions of dollars in gold are flowing out of Sudan in virtually every direction at a time when prices are at record highs. Motorcycles, cars, trucks and private planes shuttle gold across the borders with neighbouring countries, nearly all ending up in the UAE, according to the US State Department. Since 2019, annual gold exports to the UAE alone have been estimated at $16 billion. Gold mines in Sengo Town, South Darfur, owned by the Hemeti family company Al-Junaid, produces up to 150 kilos of gold a day. Sudanese journalists reporting for Ayin Media recently visited the mining area and reported on RSF militiamen patrolling Al-Junaid gold mine and the presence of Russian employees of the Wagner Group.

Read: Sudan seeks urgent Arab League meeting to counter foreign interference

Hundreds of miles north of the RSF’s gold mines in South Darfur sits the SAF gold mine, the largest gold mine in Sudan named after the ancient Nubian Kingdom Kush. Unlike the Al-Junaid mine that uses local near-slave labour, the Kush mine is equipped with massive excavators and expensive machinery. The Kush mine churns out tonnes of the precious commodity and supplies the SAF with hard-needed cash to continue the fight against the RSF militia. Unbeknown to many, the Kush gold mine received heavy investment from Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed, brother of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ), the president of the UAE who is providing logistical and military support to the RSF.

Analysts and experts following the conflict say that even if the war’s foreign sponsors ceased support, the gold trade is so lucrative that the Sudanese warring parties could finance the conflict themselves. With BRICS nations seeking alternatives to the US dollar and avoidance of sanctions, gold is expected to be the go-to commodity for trade. “Gold is destroying Sudan and it’s destroying the Sudanese,” said Suliman Baldo, a Sudanese expert on the nation’s resources.

This is a prime example of the fog of war, alliances and counter-alliances fuelling the conflict for their interest and filling the coffers of both parties as Sudan burns. Sudan’s geopolitical locality and its gold are at the beginning and end of this horrific war raging for 19 months, displacing millions, and claiming the lives of hundreds of thousands. The question remains whether the UAE is prepared to pursue geopolitical goals at any cost. Sadly, it is clear in any case that Sudanese blood is not worth its weight in gold.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.