Sudan: RSF massacre in Al-Jazira state further threatens regional stability

The precise reasons for the flare up of violence in Sudan’s Al-Jazira State seems to have been driven by retribution and revenge. Days after the defection of an ex-Rapid Support Forces leader, 370 villagers mainly from the Shukria Tribe in the east of Al-Jazira were massacred. The horrific events followed jubilant scenes on Sunday 20th October, when a RSF leader, Abuagla Keikal, commander of Al-Jazira State, surrendered with his forces and joined the ranks of the army.

A member of the Shukria tribe, Keikal’s decision to surrender was confirmed by the army in an official statement. “The armed forces welcome this brave step and confirm that its doors remain open to all those who side with the national army and the armed forces.”

However, the unprecedented upsurge in violence does not seem to have any military benefit rather appears to be acts of terror and retribution. The reports of the killings were based on tribal identity, using civilians as hostages, kidnapping and raping women and girls, in addition to forced displacement, looting of property and starvation by burning corn crops in the fields. Commentator Mansour Al Hadi explained: “This is a message to anyone who might think of breaking away from the ‘Al-Dagalo clan’ [the RSF]. It is also an attempt to overshadow the recent victories of the Sudanese army in the Sennar and Khartoum areas by shifting the public’s attention and framing the military as unable to protect civilians, thus undermining morale and Keikal’s surrender.”

As expected, the events prompted severe criticism of the government with calls for the people of Al-Jazira to be armed. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must wake up from its deep sleep and assume its professional and national responsibilities in issuing a daily statement on the crimes of the Rapid Support Militia in Al-Jazira and Darfur,” said one commentator.

In his speech in the United Nations Security Council, the UN Secretary, Antonio Guterres, urged an immediate cessation of hostilities. He stressed the need to intensify diplomatic efforts, as well as to put in place the Jeddah Declaration of 11 May 2023, emphasising the need for the protection of civilians. “Those responsible for war crimes must be held accountable,” he said, while stressing that “direct or indirect flow” of arms and ammunition into Sudan “must cease immediately.”

However, the secretary general fell short of ordering the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force to protect civilians. He said “conditions do not exist” for the successful deployment of a UN force to protect civilians. He added that the Secretariat stands ready to engage with the Security Council and others that can reduce the violence and protect civilians. Despite the substantial military gains of the Sudan army since late September, experts and commentators are not convinced a complete defeat of the RSF is possible. They argue only a political solution can bring a long lasting end to the fighting.

The Sudan government may also be of the view that negotiations are inevitable but to dismantle the RSF remains the end goal. Moreover, members of the government are concerned that the longer the war continues, the more likely it is that the international community will feel compelled to intervene. The UK’s Shadow Foreign Secretary, Andrew Mitchel, is amongst those pushing for the international community to take ‘decisive’ action. “Our ministers, when reporting back to the security council on protection recommendations, support the call for the deployment of an independent and impartial force with a mandate to protect civilians in Sudan.”

There are also concerns within the region about the composition and direction of a new Sudan. There are two points of view being put forward. Firstly with the reemergence of the Islamic movement within the ranks of Sudan’s army, there may be an unwillingness to allow the movement to reestablish a foothold. Secondly, there are wider regional considerations that require Sudan to maintain its independence and neutrality.

Those regional issues include the tug or war between Egypt and Ethiopia of the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which Cairo fears will severely limit Egypt’s fresh water supply from the Nile River. An agreement signed in January between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, supported by the UAE, prompted Egypt to broker an alliance on 10 October with Eritrea and Somalia. They agreed to the “unequivocal respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries of the region; confronting interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region under any pretext or justification; coordinating joint efforts to achieve regional stability.”

Whilst Sudan is not a party to the agreement, ”the interference into internal affairs of the countries in the region,” quite clearly includes the Sudanese and those who would seek to destabilise the region. The latest troubling events in Sudan may push those in the region to come to Sudan’s aid to ensure that its interests and those of its allies are not compromised.

READ: Famine in war-torn Sudan is spreading, global monitor warns

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.