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How far will Trump go for Israel?

Rabia Ali
2 months ago
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A man walks under a banner congratulating US President-elect Donald Trump on winning the US presidential election, in Jerusalem on November 7, 2024 [AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to become the first foreign leader to meet with US President Donald Trump today, a visit that comes amid ongoing uncertainty over the Gaza ceasefire and Israel’s escalating violence in the occupied West Bank. How far will Trump go for Israel?

While Trump and Netanyahu — the latter the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over war crimes in Gaza — have long shared a close relationship, experts suggest that the dynamics between them may be shifting. According to Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel with the International Crisis Group (ICG), Netanyahu’s political standing has weakened considerably since the last time he met Trump.

“This is Trump’s second term, and this is Netanyahu coming in after having lost a lot of popularity within Israel and coming in as a weaker leader; somebody who promised to destroy Hamas, and now we see that he’s been kind of forced by Trump to enter a ceasefire deal without having achieved those war objectives,” Zonszein told Anadolu.

With Gaza a major point of discussion, the analyst emphasised that Trump “wants to get Gaza off his plate and move on to other things.”

The meeting comes at a crucial time, Zonszein added, as Netanyahu struggles to keep his fragile coalition together by making promises that he cannot deliver, which could create tensions in his talks with Trump. “There’s going to be tensions on that level, and I think they also have obviously different ideas of how to move forward on certain issues, whether it’s in Gaza or on Iran.” However, she added that Netanyahu is likely to try to align himself with Trump’s priorities as much as possible.

Political scientist and former Israeli army officer Ahron Bregman expects the meeting to be outwardly friendly but tense behind the scenes.

“What we will see in Washington when Trump and Netanyahu meet is a lot of smiles and handshaking,” he said. “Behind the scenes, however, it will be brutal. Netanyahu never counted on Biden, but he is wary of Trump, as the president is unpredictable. They don’t see eye to eye. Netanyahu wants the Gaza war to continue, while Trump wants a deal with Saudi Arabia. For an agreement with the Saudis, Trump needs to end the Gaza war.”

One of the most pressing issues on the agenda will be the status of the ceasefire in Gaza and whether Israel will resume its deadly war, which has killed or wounded around 160,000 Palestinians and left the enclave in ruins.

Before departing for the US, Netanyahu delayed sending his negotiating team to Qatar for talks on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, choosing to wait until after his meeting with Trump, according to Israeli media reports.

Analysts believe that Trump will exert heavy pressure on Netanyahu to advance the ceasefire process, which will lead to the release of more Israeli hostages while also paving the way for an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war.

Zonszein reiterated that Trump is eager to move past the conflict in Gaza and focus on other regional and domestic issues, including Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation. “Trump put a lot of political capital behind the ceasefire deal,” she explained, “so he clearly wants it to happen.”

READ: Trump says he has ‘no assurances’ Gaza ceasefire will hold as he prepares to host Netanyahu

However, she pointed out that Trump has also suggested controversial ideas, such as transferring Palestinians from Gaza, an idea that aligns with the Israeli far right’s objectives. “So, what Trump wants is to end the war and remove Hamas from power,” she said. “Netanyahu can probably live with that, if there’s actually a way to get Hamas out of power in Gaza, which I think is highly unrealistic.”

Despite Trump’s pressure, Netanyahu has worked actively against the ceasefire, as his political survival depends on continuing the war, said Zonszein. “The question is how much Trump is going to push him, and what he can bring back to his coalition members, specifically the finance minister [far-right extremist Bezalel Smotrich].”

Another major topic expected to be discussed behind closed doors is Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and the possibility of annexation. Netanyahu’s government has increased settlement activity and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, while also openly expressing its ambition to annex parts of the territory.

As recently as Monday, Trump left the door open to the possibility of Israel annexing more West Bank territory.

Responding to a question from reporters in the Oval Office, he said: “Well, I’m not going to talk about that. It certainly is a small country in terms of land. Actually, it’s a pretty small piece of land, and it’s amazing that they’ve been able to do what they’ve been able to do. When you think about it, it’s a lot of good smart brain power, but it is a very small piece of land, no question about it.”

Zonszein believes that the issue will be addressed during the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, although it may not take centre stage. “It’ll be discussed in some way, obviously. Israel has really increased its violence and raids in the West Bank since the minute that the Gaza ceasefire went into effect, and this government in Israel has a very clear agenda of annexing the West Bank.”

She also noted that several key figures in Trump’s administration – such as Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik – are strong supporters of Israeli settlements and annexation. “The question is how much that will play a role in Trump’s bigger plan with Saudi normalisation, because there’s no way that he can move on Saudi normalisation while giving Israel the West Bank. That’s just not going to work.”

While the ICG analyst believes that West Bank annexation is not currently a priority for Trump, she warned that Israel has already been annexing the territory in practice.

READ: Egypt unions reject forced displacement of Palestinians

Netanyahu is also grappling with mounting domestic challenges, including pressure from his far-right allies to resume the Gaza war and threats from Orthodox Jewish groups. Last week, the leader of Israel’s Shas Party threatened to bring down Netanyahu’s government if he did not address the issue of military exemptions for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews within the next two months.

Former army officer Bregman, however, argued that Netanyahu’s primary concern is his political survival. “What is on Netanyahu’s mind is his political survival. That’s his priority. To preserve his coalition, Netanyahu needs the Gaza war to continue, as this is what his far-right coalition partners insist upon.”

Finally, Trump and Netanyahu are expected to discuss the future governance of Gaza. According to Bregman, both leaders will emphasise the need to remove Hamas from power, but their strategies will differ.

“Trump will want to see Hamas toppled not by direct war, but by promoting his idea of transferring Gazans from the Strip to other places, something which will never work,” he said. “He will also suggest introducing elements from the Palestinian Authority [PA] to the Strip, something which Netanyahu is already implementing, although he won’t admit it. He has agreed to Abu Mazen’s [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas] people operating the Rafah crossing.”

Zonszein noted that Netanyahu has long avoided engaging with the Palestinian leadership and has no clear plan for Gaza’s future.

“There’s no real plan on the Israeli side,” she insisted. “What is starting to happen in the crossings is that Palestinian Authority officials are beginning to participate in running them, so, de facto, there’s no other alternative.”

She also emphasised that Hamas remains intact in Gaza, leaving no clear alternative for governance. As far as Trump is concerned, the analyst added that the US president is putting out a lot of ideas, but his actual plan remains unclear, while Israel still wants to maintain control over the buffer zone it created and remain the de facto security force in Gaza.

OPINION: The great march of hope: Gaza’s defiance against erasure

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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