How will Israel react to these two major shocks?

Israelis have had two major shocks. Watching hundreds of thousands of Palestinians return to the remains of their homes in the north of the Gaza Strip, an area which has been devastated by Israel’s bombing campaign. Then watching the Hamas military display while the movement handed over the Israeli captives. No one can predict what Israeli reactions will be.

Will they conduct a critical review of their choice to live at the expense of justice and peace, or will the Netanyahu government renege on the ceasefire agreement and resume the genocide? According to some Israeli analysts, these two shocks may be more severe than the shock of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, because it may shake the confidence of Israeli society in the army’s ability to protect it.

Of course, many Israelis believed that genocide alone would be enough to break the Palestinian people and impose Israel’s will on them, but hopes have been raised that Israeli society may be shocked into an awakening of reason, albeit not necessarily an awakening of conscience. The Palestinians and free people around the world hope that this will see the beginning of real change in Israeli society.

Common sense dictates that a normal society or a normal state should draw logical conclusions in the face of the results of a brutal war that is unparalleled. After more than 400 days of genocide and siege imposed on a very small strip of land, the resistance movement appeared, along with large crowds celebrating despite being exhausted and burdened by grief and loss.

This was a display of strength and ability to control Gaza.

However, we are facing a colonial society charged with a sense of superiority, and with a genocidal tendency, which has been brainwashed and deceived by its political and religious leadership for decades to accept this sort of horrific violence against the indigenous inhabitants of the land.

It is difficult to predict the upcoming decisions of the Israeli occupation regime, which has already threatened not to implement the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, although many analysts tend to rule out Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to abandon the ceasefire given the desire of the emperor of American imperialism to end all wars, as Donald Trump has declared. This is not to mention the overwhelming support of the Israeli majority for a ceasefire to release the hostages.

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We are unlikely to see a real rift in Israeli society in the foreseeable future and the emergence of influential segments calling for a reconsideration of the reliance on force to suppress the aspirations of the Palestinian people. This is because radical shifts towards the right wing and fascism are widespread in Israel and have a far-reaching impact.

However, is change unlikely in the medium-term, and could the Palestinians count on internal change in Israel at all? One of the goals of earlier liberation movements was to bring about change within the settler-occupation society and in world opinion.

The mistake, though, is to rely solely on such change and wait for Israeli regimes to change without activating national unity and organised popular action. This is the miserable policy adopted by the Ramallah Authority, which follows a weak, feeble and begging-bowl discourse. The shortcoming is also evident in the weakness of the discourse of the Palestinian resistance movements directed at public opinion around the world. The Palestinian resistance celebrated the unprecedented expansion of the popular solidarity movement around the world, especially in the West, but we must admit that this was not only due to the justice of the Palestinian cause and the legendary steadfastness of the Palestinian people, but also, to a large extent, to the unparalleled Israeli brutality and the celebration of their genocidal acts by members of the Israeli occupation forces.

Regardless of the correctness or incorrectness of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, we are facing a new reality in which neither party has resolved the conflict, despite the imbalance of military power in favour of the coloniser. On the one hand, the Palestinians have demonstrated that surrendering is not an option, while on the other, the Israelis have failed to achieve their main declared goals, despite having committed the most heinous crimes in what is laughingly called “self-defence”. Israel is expected to conclude that it is impossible to force the Palestinians to surrender.

The occupation state needs to abandon its aggressive, racist and self-entitled policies by recognising the right of self-determination for the Palestinian people.

Of course, the Palestinians can contribute to bringing about a change in the power equation in the political arena within the settler-colonial society by putting their own political house in order through effective national unity. They can also adopt a clear vision to end the colonial conflict, agree on the tools and strategies of the legitimate struggle, and build a universal discourse that matches the discourse of the global liberation solidarity movement, and develops a direct relationship with it.

So far, there are no indications of a definite end to the genocide, which may stop soon, or may be renewed, but the colonial conflict will continue as long as the coloniser is still committed to its inhumane project in all of Palestine. This war represented the most heinous round in the history of the conflict, and it completely exposed the brutality of the Zionist movement and its supporters in the Western axis of genocide.

We are facing a global colonial movement, not a local or regional one. This fact is known to our people and their national movement, but it was not known to many people around the world who thus advocated not only for the Palestinian people, but also for themselves, because they are suffering under the exploitation of the global capitalist, imperialist system. As such, the Palestinian national movement must take this fact into account in building its upcoming strategy, and in the process of bringing about change in the global popular arena, especially in the US, which is witnessing some remarkable transformations, particularly among young Jewish Americans.

If the genocidal war is not renewed, and we pray that it will not be, then there must be organised, extended and effective popular action.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arab48 on 2 February 2025

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