Sudan’s army is set to secure a new peace, but it may lead to a new wave of political instability

The new series of military gains sweeping across Sudan may arguably be a result of a new-found confidence brought about by a renewed sense of purpose and unity of the nation. The Sudan Army’s successes in Kordofan, Eastern Nile, Bahri, the oil refinery and the Central Army Headquarters has demoralised the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), leading fighters to flee in droves with their families and even their furniture. Meanwhile, an AFP correspondent in Port Sudan has reported that around 70 buses were seen on Monday carrying an estimated 3,500 displaced people returning home to Wad Madani. The war in Sudan has created the world’s largest internal displacement crisis, with 14 million people forced to flee their homes.

The cries for civilian rule, peace, justice and equality have been replaced by demands for safety, security, hopes for the return to homelands and the dream of stability. The cries of “one people, one army” are also likely to drown out political calls for army reforms. Some Sudanese are not impressed with politicians like former Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, the leader of the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces otherwise known as Taqaddam. The group’s talk of forming a government-in-exile resulted in a leadership crisis threatening the bloc’s unity. Hamdok openly courted foreign international intervention disguised as peacekeeping forces to end the war. It was a move seen by many as intended to trigger a foreign invasion of Sudan.

READ: At least 54 people killed in Sudan in RSF attack on market, health ministry says

Politically, a push to return to civilian rule will come at a time when the army will be at its most popular. One could argue that the call for justice will be more intense to avenge an estimated 61,000 people killed in the war with the RSF. The bad feelings toward the Islamic leadership accused of being behind the country’s economic and political problems could dissipate given the role that the Islamic fighters have played in the liberation of the country. Moreover, the need to reward the fighting force would be difficult to avoid and those with experience of government would be hard to ignore. The economic problems may also continue if inflationary pressures are unabated and new foreign investments are stalled. The war will, ironically, focus attention on the soldiers, the young and the brave who fought in defence of the nation.

The Sudanese people may well ask why they should put confidence and trust in a political class that sought to criticise the patriotism of the army and appeared at times to stand with the “much despised” RSF rebels. Many are wondering whether the leadership of the political forces will stay true to a promise to step down from politics if the war comes to an end.

A serious question remains over the fate of the RSF.

The militia was once touted as the new fighting force that would reform the army and hand over democracy to civilians to take control of the country. Stories of heroism are now beginning to emerge over the four-months’ capture of Sudan President Al-Burhan in the army headquarters. Repeated frustration has been voiced by RSF commander Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo in his speeches; he revealed that he had been asked to eradicate the Islamic influence in the country and the region. The request to destroy the perceived Islamic political control of Sudan led by Ali Ahmed Karti is believed to have come from the United Arab Emirates and other unnamed states. However, the UAE has undoubtedly supplied weapons and ammunition that have flooded into the country. A traditional ally of Sudan, the UAE’s financial support will no doubt cease now, and attempts to block the RSF control of gold reserves will require Sudan, in any case, to diversify its sources of income.

The attempt to re-establish Sudan’s sovereignty and self-determination will mean renewing international alliances with its neighbours. Staying close to its neighbours might prove a difficult task, with the exception of Egypt. South Sudan has developed a new rift with Khartoum with problems in Abyei and violence between north Sudanese traders. Chad and Libya may host fleeing RSF fighters and Ethiopia and Eritrea are not strong enough to assist Sudan politically or economically. That leaves Turkiye and Russia, who are poised to become close allies of Khartoum if either of the two powers wish to set up shop in East Africa and the Nile.

The fear is that even after the peace is won, there may be some in the international community unwilling to allow Sudan to withdraw from alliances with Western powers.

International sanctions may be the reality that a new Sudan will have to consider. Analysts are now convinced that Sudan must begin a reconstruction process which will set back the movement towards democratic change. Some talk about at least fifteen years before Sudan can be ready for civilian rule.

Rebuilding the fabric of Sudanese social life may begin quickly, but renewed political divisions could create damaging factionalism. Keeping Sudan as a unified state will depend on a strong central government, anti-insurgency tactics or a mechanism that meets the aspirations of the people of Sudan. Without such a government, the once dependable fabric of Sudanese society may unravel catastrophically.

READ: Sudanese army regains control of 2 cities in Al-Jazira state

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.