On the US sanctions and regional support for parallel entities in Yemen

There is a very important development represented by the US classification of the Houthi group as a foreign terrorist organisation, which entered into force at the beginning of March, signifying the beginning of the decline in the relationship between Washington and the group. There is another development that is no less dangerous, revealed by the statement issued by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which expressed – for the first time – its support for the parallel entities in the legitimate authority.

The classification and sanctions imposed on a large number of Houthi leaders will immediately impact the ability of the largest number of the Yemeni people under the control of the Houthi group to access the global financial network and international markets. It will also affect the process of importing goods, which is something that could either strengthen the legitimate authority and bring us closer to salvation, or throw the Yemeni people into a deep abyss of suffering and paralysis.

The Houthi group can bypass these sanctions in order to maintain the de facto authority imposed by the group in Sana’a, but it will inevitably fall under the destructive impact of the sanctions. The group will also lack the dynamism, vitality and uninhibited behaviour that distinguished the coup group in Sana’a from the legitimate authority, which is shackled by the restrictions of international obligations as the recognised national authority.

In the meantime, the Saudi role is emerging once again on the scene of the dramatic developments in Yemen, sending very negative signals, expressed by the mysterious talks held in Washington by the official in charge of the Yemeni file in the Saudi government, Minister of Defence Prince Khalid Bin Salman, accompanied by the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber.

Al-Jaber’s visit to Muscat following his return from Washington was surprising behaviour, as Al-Jaber did not schedule meetings with any officials in Yemen’s Saudi-allied government.

Al-Jaber’s visit to the Omani capital does not only mean discussions with Omani officials, but also meeting with representatives of the Houthi group, and delivering messages, the content of which has not been revealed. However, we are certain that it carried a mixture of promises and threats, in the context of Saudi Arabia’s desire to keep the Yemeni conflict file under Riyadh’s control, reinforcing this desire with openness to solutions that preserve the opportunity for the Houthis to achieve long-term gains in the Yemeni arena despite the hardline American positions.

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Saudi Arabia realises that it alone stands in the crosshairs of Houthi threats and blackmail, expressed by the group’s leaders, headed by Abdul Malik Al-Houthi. This does not mean it is unable to deal with these threats, but the matter seems connected to the complexities represented by the unsettled behaviour of the US administration towards Saudi Arabia itself. It is possible that the Yemen file will remain an important pressuring card in Washington’s hands to force the Saudi hand mainly on the major dues related to Zionist interests.

There is a dangerous and unfortunate regional tendency – dictated by the influential forces in the Yemeni file – to deal with the possibility of the dissolution of the legitimate authority and the redistribution of its legitimacy among the de facto forces. It was revealed by the statement issued by the meeting of the GCC foreign ministers held in Makkah.

The Ministerial Council “affirmed its full support for the Presidential Leadership Council headed by His Excellency Dr Rashad Muhammad Al-Alimi, and the entities supporting it to achieve security and stability in Yemen.” The danger lies in the phrase “and the entities supporting it,” as it grants parallel legitimacy to entities, some of which adopt a separatist approach not at the political level but at the geographic level. This realistically poses an existential threat to the state headed by Al-Alimi, who the GCC statement expressed support for along with his authority.

The danger is no longer limited to the Houthis and their regional and international intersections but also includes this selfish engineering of Yemen’s present and future by influential regional countries that are unfortunately exploiting the current paralysis of the Yemeni state’s capabilities.

The inevitable result is that starting from March, Yemen will enter a new phase of political and economic paralysis that will affect the ability of the authorities controlling it, and will only leave them with the ability to fight with the available capabilities, especially if Washington and London succeed in implementing their promises to establish a mechanism to monitor the flow of weapons and military aid to the Houthis.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 and was edited for MEMO.

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