Turkiye could be a vital partner as Europe and Ukraine seek a new security framework

Turkiye has emerged as a key potential partner in restructuring European security, diplomats and analysts say, as Europe scrambles to bolster its defence and find guarantees for Ukraine under any forthcoming ceasefire deal urged by the United States.

European countries have been unsettled by US President Donald Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine war, which has upended Washington’s policy; halted Russia’s isolation with a possibility of rapprochement; piled pressure on Kyiv after disastrous talks in the Oval Office with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; and endangered transatlantic ties.

Analysts say that the European push to maintain Ukraine’s military capabilities and agree security guarantees, while boosting its own defence without Washington, has created a rare opportunity for Turkiye to deepen ties with Europe despite lingering disputes over the rule of law, maritime issues with Greece and Cyprus, and Ankara’s long stalled European Union membership bid.

“European countries which thought that they had the luxury of excluding Turkiye until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Turkiye any longer,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

Speaking after talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he brought a “clear proposal for Turkiye to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility” for peace in Ukraine and regional stability.

A senior European diplomat said that Turkiye had “very important views” on what is needed for peace in Ukraine.

Erdogan has managed to balance his relationships with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the war, said the diplomat, “so it makes sense to have him on board.”

NATO member Turkiye has the alliance’s second largest army. It has begun producing its own jets, tanks and naval carriers in recent years, and sells armed drones globally, including to Ukraine. Its defence industry exports totalled $7.1 billion in 2024.

In a blizzard of talks and decisions since Trump’s return in January, several European nations discussed forming a “coalition of the willing” to help Ukraine. France has offered to consider extending its nuclear umbrella to its allies.

Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have said that Europe must include Turkiye in the restructure of its security architecture in a “sustainable and deterrent” way.

Netherlands: Turkiye can contribute to new European security structure

A Turkish official, who requested anonymity, said that there were no clear plans yet on a new European security architecture or Turkiye’s possible contributions to it, but certain steps could advance cooperation.

“Instead of including Turkiye in projects in an ‘a la carte’ way, it would be more logical [for Europe] to seek partnerships in a more holistic way. For example, they can start by including Turkiye in the European Peace Facility programme,” the official told Reuters, referring to an EU initiative supporting Ukraine.

A Turkish Defence Ministry official said that Ankara and Europe had common interests, from counter-terrorism to migration, and Turkiye’s full participation in EU defence efforts was critical for Europe to be a global actor.

The official added that Turkiye is ready to do what it can to help form the new security framework.

Despite the window of opportunity, analysts say that Turkiye’s stance towards Russia remains a test, as Ankara refused to impose sanctions after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and still shares strong ties in energy, tourism and trade.

“The fundamental question that will come before Turkiye is the issue of ties with Russia, because the essence of Europe’s security framework starts by viewing Russia as a threat,” explained Ulgen. Ankara, he said, must choose a side and position on Russia to take a greater security role.

Turkiye has backed Ukraine militarily and voiced support for its territorial integrity and sovereignty. It hosted peace talks in the first weeks of the war and offered to host future talks, while seeking to revive a deal on Black Sea navigational safety.

Last week, a Turkish Defence Ministry source said that Turkiye could consider contributing to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, if a ceasefire is declared.

Turkiye’s armed forces chief of staff Metin Gurak attended a meeting of European army chiefs in Paris this week, and met counterparts from Britain and France, who have also discussed deploying troops.

Another European diplomat said that it was vital for Turkiye to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine.

“Erdogan’s interests lie with us right now, especially as he no longer has that Russia dynamic in Syria,” said the diplomat, in a reference to Russia’s backing of former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Turkiye backing opposition rebels for years. “So, in a way, the stars are aligned for them to play a role within the future European guarantees for Ukraine.”

READ: Saudi Arabia, Turkiye discuss bilateral defence cooperation

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.