Opportunities and risks: How Turkiye might navigate Trump’s trade shake-up 

Few countries occupy such a unique position where the East and West economic fault lines meet as Turkiye does, especially with the global economy preparing for potential disruptions from Donald Trump’s second term in the White House. Under protectionist trade policies, Trump is imposing aggressive tariffs and bilateral deals which could turn Turkiye’s geopolitical agility into a double-edged sword of both liability and asset.

President Sekib Avdagic of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce pointed out at a recent event that the United States now implements tariffs as a negotiation strategy rather than simple economic measures. Turkish policymakers and businesses need to grasp this transformed reality and respond accordingly.

I have discussed this with a number of experts while analysing relevant academic studies and policy documents. Dr Ziya Onis, a Professor of International Political Economy at Koc University, shared with me her view that Turkiye needs to expand its export markets beyond traditional partners by pursuing active trade partnerships with nations in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Turkiye’s vulnerability, she believes, increases when we depend excessively on both the European Union and the US.

Trump’s “America First” doctrine has transformed how international trade operates around the world.

According to Chad P. Bown of the Peterson Institute in his 2020 book, The US-China Trade War: The Guns of August, Trump’s approach to trade is centred on gaining leverage rather than establishing rules. Bown explains that tariffs were wielded as instruments of geopolitical control rather than economic efficiency.

The goal of Turkiye to establish itself as a regional production and logistics centre makes it impossible to disregard this strategic path. Turkiye’s existing Customs Union with the EU remains in effect despite its outdated nature, and continues to bind the country closer to Europe than to the US. Turkiye’s freedom to navigate in Trump’s global trade restructuring will depend on its capacity to hedge risks while also maintaining diplomatic and economic engagement.

Dr Melike Yetken is a former official at the US State Department. During a Washington DC panel discussion, she cautioned that Ankara should recognise the individualised approach that Trump takes in diplomacy. Back-channel communication together with strategic patience could achieve better results than public disputes.

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Turkiye has shifted its focus strategically towards the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region along with the rest of Africa and Asia. It has expanded its trade pathways gradually throughout the past ten years. Turkiye’s bilateral trade with African nations reached over $40 billion in 2023. The Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor between Turkiye and China through Central Asian states reflects a long-term commercial sovereignty strategy.

The former Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Ambassador Ahmet Uzumcu, who serves as a senior advisor on global governance, advocated for Turkiye to establish itself as a regional stabiliser through the evolving landscape of international power.

Turkiye’s power source stems from its diplomatic capacity to act as a mediator instead of using forceful rhetoric.

It stands as a potential connector between a divided Western world and the rising Global South if Trump re-isolates Europe.

Trade today involves not only tariffs and routes, but also technological advancements and sustainable practices. The future of Turkiye’s access to green supply chains and its competitiveness in industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy depends on its adherence to its Green Deal Action Plan which follows EU regulations.

Trump’s doubts about environmental efforts bring up potential challenges alongside new openings for Turkiye. The US withdrawal from climate initiatives creates turmoil which Ankara can exploit to strengthen its position in clean energy investments and manufacturing sectors. According to energy economist Mustafa Yilmaz, “Turkiye has the potential to serve Europe as a clean-tech partner and still keep flexible connections with manufacturers from Asia. The key is adaptability.”

Economist Dani Rodrik’s research presented in “Straight Talk on Trade”, suggested that emerging markets need to develop unique hybrid strategies. “There’s no universal formula any more,” he said. “You must engage selectively and protect selectively.”

Any strategy lacking internal stability will inevitably become vulnerable. The resilience of Turkiye is tested by its inflation rate and currency volatility together with high youth unemployment rates. Macroeconomic discipline is essential to safeguard the economy from destabilising external shocks like sudden tariffs or capital flight.

Political economist Dr Derya Gurer from London discussed some measures that Turkiye should take to protect its economic future in a world led by Trump 2.0. For Turkiye to protect its economic future effectively it needs policy transparency combined with diverse financial sources and strengthened digital competitiveness, she explained. The country should equip small- and medium-sized enterprises to function under digital trade rules and make certain that they adhere to upcoming international standards.

The approaching global trade disruption demands that Turkiye adopts proactive rather than reactive strategies.

The combination of Turkiye’s advantageous location with its diplomatic agility and innovative, young population creates its unique strength while its historical position as a bridge between continents reinforces it further.

Turkiye should avoid emotional responses by nurturing coalition-building capabilities while practicing strategic patience and enhancing its value-added exports as Trump’s return strengthens transactional politics.

As stated by the late Turkish diplomat Ismail Cem, foreign policy should focus on increasing national flexibility rather than picking sides, and Turkiye needs to practice this principle by valuing adaptability over alliances and durability over immediate responses.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.