Israel's concerns regarding Turkish influence in Syria

In recent days, Israeli officials have been expressing their displeasure at the growing Turkish influence in the Levant, amid reports that Turkiye is preparing to establish military bases near Syria’s border with occupied Palestine and to deploy air defence systems there. Israeli media outlets are also discussing on a daily basis the possibility of a military confrontation with Turkiye in Syria. Moreover, the Netanyahu government is holding security meetings to discuss ways to limit Turkish influence in Syria and avoid any military clash with it.

Last week, the Israeli army launched air strikes on two bases and military infrastructure sites in Damascus, Hama and Homs. An Israeli force also infiltrated the western countryside of Daraa, killing and wounding several Syrian civilians. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, commenting on the attacks: “You will pay a heavy price if you allow hostile forces to enter Syria and threaten Israeli security interests.” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar was more explicit than Katz when noting the aim of the air strikes and the meaning of hostile forces. He said that Israel is concerned about the “negative role” Turkiye is playing in Syria, Lebanon, and other areas, adding that the Turks are doing their utmost to turn Syria into a “Turkish protectorate”, as he put it.

Israel has always wanted Syria to remain weak and divided, exhausted by its internal issues, and it has always preferred that the Syrian regime remain in power. The fall of the regime and Russia’s withdrawal from Syria certainly upset its strategic calculations. Israel now wants freedom to act as it pleases in Syrian territory, and it believes that the presence of Turkish forces near its border will restrict this freedom, which it considers part of its natural rights. It also fears the formation of a strong army in Syria that would protect its national security, rather than protect a dictatorship based on the Alawite minority that is hostile to the Sunni majority.

No one can deny Turkiye’s role in the success of the Syrian revolution. However, Turkiye does not seek to control Syria or any part of it, or to transform it into a “Turkish protectorate”, as Israel claims. It does not want to impose custody over the will of its people. Rather, Turkiye says that “Syria belongs to the Syrians,” respects its sovereignty, supports the Syrians’ efforts to protect their country’s territorial integrity, and believes that achieving security and stability in Syria serves the interest of Turkiye’s national security. It does not plan to turn Syrian territory into an arena for a conflict with Israel or any other country. As for the Turkish military presence, signing agreements to establish military bases in Syria, or the training and arming of the Syrian army, the decision rests first and foremost with the legitimate Syrian government, which represents the will of the people, and no one has the right to interfere.

READ: Turkiye, Israel have begun talks to avoid clashes in Syria, sources say

Within the framework of this strategic vision, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has asserted that “Turkiye does not want any confrontation with Israel in Syria, and that if the new administration in Damascus wishes to reach certain understandings with Israel, that is its own business.”

Israel knows that the Turkish army is the second largest in NATO after the US army, and that it possesses military capabilities and expertise that must not be underestimated. Based on this knowledge, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated during his visit to the White House that they do not want to confront Turkiye in Syria. Netanyahu requested mediation by US President Donald Trump to resolve Israel’s problems with Turkiye and to use his relationship with Erdogan to limit Turkish influence in Syria. However, Trump urged him to act rationally and praised the Turkish president, saying he had accomplished an unprecedented matter, referring to the success of the Syrian revolution in toppling the Assad regime with Turkish support.

The Netanyahu government wants to offer Turkiye the option to divide areas of influence in Syria, with Russia on the west coast, Turkiye in the north, Israel in the south, and the US in the oil-rich east. It is also seeking to communicate with Ankara through diplomatic means and mediation via countries that have good relations with both Israel and Turkiye, such as the US, Azerbaijan and Hungary, to avoid a military confrontation between the two in Syria.

It is likely that Ankara and Tel Aviv will reach certain understandings, but the idea of ​​​​sharing influence is unacceptable to Turkiye for several reasons. First, it would lead to dividing Syria, something Ankara categorically rejects. Turkiye is also unlikely to back down from its support for Syria, fearing Israeli threats. This is because current regional circumstances, shared interests, and the challenges facing both neighbouring countries (Syria and Turkiye) require coordination and cooperation in all areas.

Regardless of how valid Trump’s statements are about his admiration for Erdogan, Erdogan’s admiration for him, and Turkiye’s control over Syria, they suggest that the US has given Turkish influence in Syria the greenlight. The US administration is trying to reassure Israel, but the latter’s fears over its future cannot be dispelled, despite all the reassuring messages. Israel has seen firsthand how the Turkish-Syrian partnership, embodied in the Idlib experience, succeeded in uprooting the former regime, even after a decade.

READ: The goals of Israel’s ongoing aggression against Syria

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 9 April 2025

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.