Donald Trump has been, and will remain, an unpredictable man. He is a master of surprises at every level. Before announcing his major tariff increases for all imports to the US from all exporting countries worldwide, he had publicly begun strengthening Israel militarily with a generous shipment of the advanced THAAD missile system. He also gathered a massive naval and air force in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean, including numerous destroyers, aircraft carriers and deadly B-52 bombers. He signalled to the world that he would develop America’s attack on Yemen, on both its army and its people, and turn it into a devastating war, in partnership with Israel against Iran.
Iran’s top leadership had refused to respond to Trump’s threatening request for direct negotiations over its nuclear programme. Trump surprised the world, especially his friend and White House guest, Benjamin Netanyahu, by announcing the initiation of negotiations with Iran, beginning in the Sultanate of Oman on 12 April. Netanyahu, a tireless advocate of waging war against Iran, was stunned by what he had just heard and tried to soften the blow with hushed words that Israeli media described as reflecting his disappointment and humiliation. Netanyahu said, “We’re both united in the goal that Iran does not get nuclear weapons,” as he sat alongside the US President, adding, “If it can be done diplomatically, in a full way, the way it was done in Libya, I think that would be a good thing.”
READ: Iranian FM to consult on Iran-US talks during visit to Russia
However, there are those in Israel who still hope that Trump will later use his devastating war on Yemen as a model for what he can do to Iran, more forcefully and more extensively, if it refuses to comply with his many inflexible demands. How? By shifting from the defensive response strategy adopted by the administration of former US President Joe Biden to an offensive deterrence strategy. Isn’t this what Trump and his aides threatened Iran with on the eve of the start of negotiations in Oman? Furthermore, there is another question: What do Washington and Tehran want in the negotiations? Trump wants to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon. Tehran wants the negotiations to be limited to discussing the nuclear issue alone, but it is clear from the statements of the US President and his aides that Washington seeks to expand the scope of the negotiations to include, in addition to the nuclear issue, Iran’s policy in the region, particularly its support for the Houthis in Yemen and its programme to build and develop long-range ballistic missiles. While Tel Aviv deliberately ignores the danger of the ballistic missiles it suffered during Iran’s response to its recent aggression, its strategic experts realise that the crux of the negotiations is Iran’s programme to build and develop ballistic missiles, which are more dangerous to Israel (and perhaps to the US, as well) than its nuclear programme. Tehran’s (presumed) success in developing a nuclear bomb would not prompt it to use it in war for three significant reasons:
First, because Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued a fatwa prohibiting its manufacture or use, as the extreme deadliness and indiscriminate destruction it would cause are morally and religiously prohibited. Arabs, both Muslims and Christians, who live in the Zionist entity that has existed since 1948, as well as in the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, would certainly suffer enormous human and physical damage if nuclear weapons were used.
Second, because the use of nuclear weapons would cause immense harm and damage to both warring parties using them, greatly limiting its legitimacy and effectiveness.
Third, because the US is far more powerful when it comes to nuclear weapons than Iran, and it would cause Iran immeasurable damage compared to the US. What further need or benefit would there be for using this deadly weapon?
Compared to nuclear weapons, long-range ballistic missiles appear to be more effective, more destructive, and even more dangerous to Israel than nuclear weapons. Why? Because the occupying entity also will not use nuclear weapons for the reasons mentioned above. Furthermore, it is inconceivable that the US would use them on its behalf, knowing that Iran could use its ballistic missiles to retaliate forcefully, causing massive human and material damage to all US military bases in West Asia, not to mention the devastating damage that would be inflicted on the Zionist entity itself. Despite the positive impressions expressed by both the Iranian and American sides after their first meeting last Saturday to determine the course of negotiations, most observers in Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington tend to doubt the success of the ongoing negotiations in Oman. They believe they will be prolonged for several reasons, not least of which is the growing negative reactions to the tariff war launched by Trump against most exporting countries, and his need to contain the reactions in order to reduce its negative repercussions on the US and the rest of the world. However, another group of observers have not ruled out the possibility of Washington and Tehran possibly reaching a compromise involving freezing the Iranian nuclear programme, particularly its high-percentage enrichment of uranium, necessary for the manufacture of nuclear bombs. This would satisfy Iran, as this compromise would keep its peaceful nuclear programme unrestricted, which is its primary concern. It also would not affect its right to develop its long-range ballistic missile programme and would lift the unjust US economic sanctions imposed on it.
This compromise would also satisfy the US, as its main concern is that Iran never possesses nuclear weapons, by Iran accepting strict monitoring and control mechanisms. It would also allow it to attract Iranian investment in the US economy. As for Israel, whose primary concern is dismantling the entire Iranian nuclear infrastructure, this compromise would leave it empty-handed. A question remains for the future: What if the US-Iranian negotiations in Oman fail, and what repercussions will it have on the Arab-Israeli conflict?
READ: 1st round of indirect Iranian-US talks in Oman conclude, set to resume next week
This article appeared in Arabic in Alquds on 13 April, 2025.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.