Once again, US President Donald Trump is threatening the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main arteries for international trade, and openly attempting to steal Egyptian state revenues in what is, in effect, a cheap form of blackmail, albeit on a large scale. This is a direct violation of Egyptian sovereignty and international law. In this context, official silence from Egypt in response to Trump’s blatant provocation is totally unhelpful; indeed, it amounts to weakness and the abandonment of national decision-making to Trump and his racist administration.
Trump made a provocative statement on Saturday evening in which he said that, “American ships, both military and commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez canals.” He claimed that neither canal would exist if it wasn’t for the US, despite the fact that Egypt completed digging the canal in 1869, at a time when the US had just emerged from a brutal civil war (1861-1865).
The US president didn’t stop at this shocking statement; he began to take steps to implement it. He instructed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to get to work immediately to make sure that US ships get free passage through the Suez Canal.
US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz also issued a provocative statement, claiming that the US should not have to pay fees to pass through a canal that it defends. Waltz didn’t elaborate on the nature of this “defence”, but the most likely reference is to US military action against Yemen’s Houthi movement, which threatens Red Sea navigation by targeting Israeli and American ships, as well as vessels from countries supporting Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.
This is not the first time that Trump has threatened the Suez Canal.
He has attempted previously to impose tribute payments on the Egyptian state, undermining its sovereignty. A few weeks ago, the US Federal Maritime Commission announced an investigation into “global maritime chokepoints”, including the Suez Canal, aimed at evaluating conditions in other countries that might harm US trade.
This move is part of Trump’s effort to pressure the countries that control global maritime routes, including Egypt, to reduce or eliminate transit fees for American ships. He has also stressed the need to protect American interests against threats to international navigation, whether in the Red Sea or the Suez Canal, which are among the busiest and most profitable maritime routes, along with the Panama Canal.
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Trump’s threats to the Suez Canal are extremely serious. They are a blatant violation of Egyptian sovereignty, as the canal is owned and operated by Egypt in accordance with international law. His demand lacks any legal or logical foundation, and poses a direct threat to global trade, as the canal is used by ships carrying around 12 per cent of the world’s commercial maritime traffic.
Economically, Trump’s actions come at a time when the Egyptian economy is facing severe domestic and international crises.
If the Egyptian government yields to US pressure, it could open the door for other countries to demand similar treatment.
This would strip Egypt of what’s left of its Suez Canal revenues, which have fallen by 60 per cent over the past year, amounting to a loss of around $7 billion. That alone could trigger renewed turmoil in Egypt’s foreign exchange market, put new pressure on the Egyptian pound, and potentially lead to further currency devaluations. The canal is one of the country’s main sources of foreign currency. Perhaps this is exactly what the Trump administration is aiming for, as it understands how vital the canal is to Egypt and its economy.
Even if the issue is limited to exempting only American ships from paying transit fees, this would still have a negative impact on the canal’s foreign currency inflows, which provide crucial dollar liquidity to Egypt’s state budget. These revenues are estimated at between $500 million and $1bn annually, as between one and two thousand American ships pass through the canal each year.
The Trump administration possesses several means to pressure Egypt and turn these threats into reality, including cutting the $1.55bn in US economic and military aid, raising tariffs on Egyptian exports to the US, and suspending the QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zone) agreement, which includes Egypt, Israel and the US and allows Egyptian goods to enter the American market tariff-free as long as they include Israeli components.
This is a very serious situation. What, I wonder can Egypt do? And how will it respond?
This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on 27 April 2025
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