AIPAC brand turns toxic as pro-Israel Republican asks lobby to stay out of Michigan race

In a further sign that support for Israel is becoming politically toxic, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers’s team has asked the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) not to run advertisements backing his campaign in Michigan, amid fears that association with the pro-Israel lobby could cost him votes.

The request, reported by Axios is the latest indication that AIPAC’s brand has become increasingly toxic in US politics as public support for Israel declines and candidates seek to distance themselves from the lobby.

Rogers, the Republican nominee for the US Senate, is running against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, an outspoken critic of Israel and US military support for the occupation state. Rogers on the other hand has been a staunch supporter of Israel.

Rogers met AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week. The following day, the lobby shelved an advertisement it had already produced attacking El-Sayed. AIPAC had been preparing to spend millions of dollars in the November election after pouring more than $30 million into an unsuccessful effort to stop El-Sayed from winning the Democratic primary. 

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Rogers’ political team believes that AIPAC’s intervention in the primary backfired by giving El-Sayed a powerful campaign issue. El-Sayed repeatedly portrayed the contest as a battle between Michigan voters and wealthy outside donors seeking to impose Israel’s priorities, and defeated congresswoman Haley Stevens despite unprecedented spending by AIPAC and affiliated groups. 

However, Rogers’s team did not seek to cut ties with AIPAC entirely but reportedly wanted its support to be less visible. The campaign suggested that AIPAC donors could instead contribute to a pro-Rogers super PAC and that the lobby’s political strategists could assist behind the scenes without AIPAC running ads under its own name.

AIPAC rejected the proposal and wanted a visible role in defeating El-Sayed, according to Axios. Talks between the two sides have since stalled. Rogers nevertheless insisted that he welcomes support from the pro-Israel community. 

The dispute exposes an increasingly awkward problem for AIPAC: politicians may still welcome its wealthy network of donor and campaign infrastructure while becoming reluctant to be publicly identified with its brand.

The problem is particularly acute in Michigan, home to one of the largest Arab-American populations in the US. A recent Fox News poll cited by Axios found that 55 per cent of Michigan voters oppose continued US aid to Israel. 

Before the Democratic primary, polling also found that 49 per cent of likely Democratic voters viewed AIPAC unfavourably, compared with just 12 per cent who viewed it favourably. Another survey found 64 per cent would be less likely to support a candidate receiving AIPAC donations. 

El-Sayed turned that hostility into a campaign weapon. After AIPAC spent tens of millions of dollars trying to defeat him, he openly challenged the lobby to spend more in the general election, telling it: “Come back and burn it again.”

The backlash against AIPAC extends beyond Michigan. New York Democratic congressman Pat Ryan, who had previously been endorsed by the lobby, announced last month that he no longer wanted its support after voting to halt $3.3 billion in annual US military assistance to Israel.

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“I expect groups like AIPAC will not support me in my future elections and frankly, I don’t want their support,” Ryan said, adding that he was returning funds linked to the organisation. 

Ryan was one of 103 House Democrats who voted to end the annual military assistance. Only 37 Democrats had opposed a separate Israel military aid package in 2024, indicating a sharp erosion of the bipartisan consensus that once surrounded US support for Israel. 

AIPAC’s own campaign tactics also suggest an awareness of the growing stigma surrounding its political intervention. In May pro-Israel donors were increasingly using fundraising groups with innocuous names that obscured their connection to Israel.

The shift comes alongside a dramatic deterioration in Israel’s standing with the American public following its assault on Gaza. A Gallup poll released in February found that, for the first time in 25 years of its polling, more Americans sympathised with Palestinians than Israelis, although the difference fell within the poll’s margin of error. Forty-one per cent sympathised more with Palestinians compared with 36 per cent with Israelis.

The divide among Democrats was far greater. Sixty-five per cent sympathised more with Palestinians while just 17 per cent sided more with Israelis. Among Americans aged 18 to 34, Palestinians led by 53 per cent to 23 per cent. 

AIPAC has also suffered a series of expensive electoral defeats. In addition to El-Sayed’s victory, California Democrat Aisha Wahab recently won a congressional special election despite more than $6 million in AIPAC spending against her. 

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