Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Peter Apps
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What Sudan tells us about 21st century coups
Barely a week before Zimbabwe’s military ousted President Robert Mugabe in November 2017, its top commander visited Beijing. Exactly what he discussed with his People’s Liberation Army counterparts has never been disclosed. But the conclusion General Constantino Chiwenga reached seemed clear – that the 93-year-old leader was losing his...
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For G20 leaders, greater problems are yet to come
World leaders heading home after the weekend G20 might be justified in breathing brief sighs of relief. Unlike at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit two weeks ago, the heads of state were able to agree on a joint communiqué. A landmark meeting between US President Donald Trump and...
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Syria strike leaves murky, risky aftermath
The US-led strikes on Syria may be over, at least for now, but the war that produced them – as well as the wider international confrontations that fueled it – is only getting more complex. In the early hours of Tuesday morning, Syrian media reported a second suspected Israeli air...
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What to watch in 2018
Professional forecasters like to say that making predictions is difficult, particularly about the future. As we reach the end of 2017, however, here are some of the key themes – and questions – that look set to shape global events next year. 1. Will Mueller’s Russia investigation mark the end...
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US loses in the Mideast even as it wins against Daesh
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited the Middle East last weekend with two simple aims – to wrap Iraq into America’s regional axis against Iran, and persuade Saudi Arabia to end its blockade of Qatar. He failed to accomplish either. The dust was barely settling on the capture of...
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The dangers of putting Putin under pressure
How will Vladimir Putin respond to the growing challenges against him? The Russian president, who turns 65 in October, might presently look unassailable – but maintaining that grip will get harder every year. Compared to British Prime Minister Theresa May or US President Donald Trump, the Russian president faces scant...
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The next super weapon could be biological
With the threat of chemical weapons in Syria and nuclear arms in North Korea, the risk of biological weapons has largely dropped off the international agenda. But evolving technologies and genetic engineering may open the door to new dangers. Other than the “anthrax in the mail” attacks that followed 9/11,...
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US must walk dangerous line to manage twin Syria, North Korea crises
If there was ever any doubt that President Donald Trump’s strike against Syria was also intended to send a message to Pyongyang, the deployment this weekend of a US carrier strike group towards the Korean Peninsula should have cleared it up. There is now a strange symmetry to the two...
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The worrying lessons of the Syria chemical attack
In terms of raw casualty numbers, Tuesday’s apparent nerve gas attack near the Syrian city of Khan Sheikhoun – believed to have killed at least 70 – should hardly be significant against the backdrop of a war that has left hundreds of thousands of people dead. But that was never...
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Mr Trump, will Her Majesty see you now?
When it comes to dealing with foreign leaders of whom she might not approve, Britain’s Queen Elizabeth always behaves impeccably. When it comes to giving a harsh message, however, she has been known to deliver a hefty punch. According to former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia Sherard Cowper-Coles, the monarch...
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Yes, 2016 was bad. Next year could be worse
The killing of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey on Monday evening might have prompted knee-jerk comparisons to the 1914 assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand, but it almost certainly won’t spark a World War One-type conflict. The lethal truck attack that killed 12 in Berlin a few hours later, however, could...
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The lessons of Aleppo's long, pointless siege
In its 7,000 years of existence, Aleppo has been fought over by Babylonians, Greeks and Romans. The modern battle for the ancient Syrian city, however, may yet be as significant for the future of the Middle East as those fought by the kingdoms and empires of the past. The four-year...
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Could Trump save US Mideast policy? Or just make it worse?
As the US election results trickled in in the early hours of 9th November, Syrian government forces began yet another assault on Aleppo – with humanitarian workers and medical centers again in the line of fire. When historians look back on the presidency of Barack Obama, they may well see...